National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div I Men's Saber

Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LOKHANOV OLY Konstantin 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 45% 11%
2 MORRILL William 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 21%
3 THOMPSON Khalil A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 74%
3 LUKASHENKO Darii 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 16%
5 SILBERZWEIG Jordan H. 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 34%
6 WANG Robert 100% 97% 83% 54% 23% 6% 1%
7 ESCUETA Tony V. 100% 100% 97% 86% 59% 26% 5%
8 BENAVRAM Lev C. 100% 100% 99% 96% 81% 50% 15%
9 LINDER James (Luke) L. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 70%
10 FREYRE DE ANDRADE Elian R. 100% 93% 65% 29% 7% 1%
11 KIM Shaun M. 100% 99% 93% 71% 36% 10% 1%
12 LINSKY Matthew 100% 100% 98% 86% 54% 16%
13 YUN Jaesun 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 12%
14 MCBRIDE Jackson R. 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 31%
15 BAE Jason I. 100% 98% 86% 56% 22% 4%
16 STATEN-LUSTY Silas J. 100% 100% 98% 88% 63% 30% 6%
17 CALLAHAN Jaden P. 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 42%
18 ANDREEV Ilia 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 77%
19 ZU Kevin 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 31%
20 WALKER Dalton F. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 47%
21 LEE Justin 100% 99% 92% 67% 28% 2%
22 EICHHORN Lukas H. 100% 98% 86% 59% 27% 7% 1%
23 JIANG Anthony 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 19% 1%
24 CHAN Matthew 100% 100% 96% 82% 52% 19% 3%
25 WITEK Bernard J. 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 32% 5%
25 MORRILL Justin 100% 99% 89% 64% 31% 9% 1%
27 SHOMAN Noah 100% 94% 68% 32% 8% 1%
28 BERRIO Carter E. 100% 99% 91% 63% 26% 4%
29 XU William 100% 99% 88% 57% 21% 3%
30 PRIEST Leighton K. 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 19%
31 NOBLE Colin 100% 94% 69% 33% 8% 1%
32 WU Roger (Mengke) 100% 99% 91% 65% 28% 5%
33 SIMAK Joseph P. 100% 100% 97% 84% 56% 24% 5%
34 WOODWARD Connor 100% 97% 84% 54% 22% 5% -
35 GEFELL Andrew P. 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
36 LIANG Connor 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 25%
37 FERNANDEZ Rodrigo 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 11%
38 RAI Avin 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 10%
39 HOLZ William A. 100% 98% 85% 53% 20% 4% -
40 SO Hananiah 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 28% 3%
41 TE VELDE Noah C. 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 38%
41 BURGUNDER Quinten (Quin) A. 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 35%
43 JEFFORDS Alexander 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 6%
44 LEE Aydan J. 100% 99% 88% 59% 23% 4%
45 FENG Leo 100% 99% 90% 61% 25% 4%
46 LUTHRA Arjun 100% 82% 42% 12% 2% -
47 BARNETT Adam 100% 99% 92% 70% 34% 7%
48 SOHN Kevin J. 100% 100% 99% 89% 62% 22%
49 ZHANG Jeffrey 100% 71% 29% 6% 1% -
50 MICLAUS Justin 100% 99% 90% 66% 33% 10% 1%
51 WILSON Jude 100% 100% 98% 87% 61% 28% 6%
51 BABAYEV Gabriel A. 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 23% 3%
53 SHOMAN Zachary 100% 99% 88% 60% 25% 5% -
54 NOBLE Daniel 100% 100% 97% 86% 58% 24% 4%
55 GONZALEZ Emilio A. 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 10% 1%
56 LILOV Neil 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 39%
56 TANN Justin 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 3% -
58 POPE Nico 100% 97% 83% 54% 23% 5% 1%
59 REN James 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 3% -
60 CHTERENTAL Alex 100% 95% 71% 34% 8% 1%
61 LIM William J. 100% 98% 85% 53% 19% 3%
62 DOLAN Charles R. 100% 86% 50% 16% 2% -
63 ERMAKOV Lev 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 18% 2%
64 BERGER Oliver 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
65 VO Minh Q. 100% 89% 56% 21% 4% < 1% -
66 DENNER Lysander H. 100% 99% 94% 73% 36% 7%
67 JOHNSON Langston C. 100% 96% 75% 40% 12% 2%
68 HONG Steven 100% 96% 76% 41% 13% 2% -
69 HUANG Ethan F. 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 9% 1%
70 NAZLYMOV Andrei 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 22% 3%
71 GUFFEY Christopher 100% 91% 64% 30% 8% 1% -
72 HOLZ Daniel 100% 99% 91% 66% 28% 5%
73 CHON Taylor A. 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 19%
74 BERMAN Luca 100% 97% 82% 50% 17% 2%
75 SLASTIN Andrew 100% 92% 65% 29% 7% 1%
76 CHENEY Christopher (Chris) M. 100% 98% 88% 59% 24% 4%
77 YANG Ziyi 100% 97% 83% 50% 17% 2%
77 LE Hayden 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1%
79 BULL Anderson 100% 97% 78% 42% 12% 1%
80 CHOI Silas 100% 99% 89% 63% 29% 7% 1%
81 GREENBAUM Maxwell H. 100% 100% 98% 89% 65% 31% 7%
82 JI Cody Walter 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
83 ATANASSOV Vasil V. 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 15% 2%
84 GANTA Vijay 100% 99% 94% 75% 42% 14% 2%
85 BROU Inkosi 100% 83% 46% 15% 3% - -
86 KWALWASSER Eric 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 3% -
87 CHEONG Heonjae 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
88 SKINNER Graham B. 100% 94% 72% 39% 13% 2% -
89 CHEONG Heonjun 100% 96% 77% 41% 12% 1% -
89 ROBERTS Sam 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 21% 4%
91 ZUBATIY Samuel 100% 99% 90% 66% 33% 10% 1%
92 CHOI HYUNSEOK 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 61% 20%
93 BOSITA Carson 100% 70% 29% 6% 1% - -
94 LI Minghan 100% 97% 79% 43% 11% 1%
95 KIM Alexander M. 100% 94% 68% 32% 8% 1%
96 GLOZMAN Justin 100% 81% 41% 12% 2% -
97 PANDEY Neil 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1%
98 STONE Esmond A. 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% -
99 YUN Jake 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 2%
100 WANG Eric Y. 100% 99% 91% 65% 27% 4%
100 LIU Mingyang Ryan 100% 73% 31% 7% 1% -
102 DENG Andrew 100% 97% 81% 47% 15% 2%
103 CORTEZ Christopher 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% -
104 WONG Ryan 100% 91% 61% 25% 5% -
105 ZEWDA Kebron 100% 76% 36% 10% 1% -
106 WOOD Elden S. 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 12%
107 KUSHKOV Daniel 100% 93% 66% 30% 8% 1% -
108 MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu 100% 92% 66% 32% 9% 1% -
109 PRIMUS Nazir 100% 98% 86% 57% 25% 6% -
110 PENG Bryan 100% 92% 63% 26% 6% 1% -
111 SHIRPAL Oleksandr 100% 98% 89% 63% 29% 7% 1%
112 YOUNG Nash 100% 99% 92% 70% 36% 10% 1%
113 YAO JINTAO 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 3% -
114 GHAYALOD ansh 100% 98% 86% 56% 23% 5% -
115 BARTOLO Domenic V. 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 9% 1%
116 WANG Nicolas 100% 82% 46% 16% 3% - -
117 TENG MATTHEW 100% 95% 73% 37% 11% 1% -
118 GREENBAUM Ian L. 100% 94% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
119 CZYZEWSKI Konrad R. 100% 100% 96% 80% 51% 20% 4%
120 KIM ELIJAH 100% 70% 29% 6% 1% - -
121 HJERPE Wade H. 100% 95% 75% 41% 14% 2% -
122 SCHERER Max 100% 86% 51% 19% 4% - -
123 HU Christopher 100% 87% 52% 19% 4% - -
124 RAMANAN Jaisimh 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
125 DODRILL Grant 100% 99% 93% 70% 35% 8%
126 MARGULIES William 100% 94% 71% 35% 9% 1%
127 VOCHOSKA Aidan F. 100% 99% 88% 59% 24% 4%
128 LO Konnor 100% 82% 45% 14% 2% -
129 SHAHZAD Azlan A. 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% -
129 ZENG Noah 100% 92% 62% 24% 4% -
131 PI Alexander 100% 89% 57% 21% 3% -
132 MICHELL Bailey 100% 98% 84% 51% 17% 2%
133 MCCARTHY Gabriel 100% 92% 63% 27% 6% 1%
134 RIGHTLER Samuel 100% 91% 61% 26% 6% 1%
135 PATIL Aaryan A. 100% 93% 68% 34% 10% 2% -
136 OH Triton 100% 90% 61% 28% 8% 1% -
137 KOGAN Benjamin 100% 100% 98% 87% 62% 28% 6%
138 WESLER Logan A. 100% 96% 76% 42% 14% 2% -
138 SAHAY Kenji 100% 83% 45% 14% 2% - -
140 AVAKIAN Alec 100% 91% 64% 31% 9% 1% -
141 REN Richard 100% 92% 66% 32% 9% 1% -
142 KIM Andrew H. 100% 98% 87% 61% 28% 7% 1%
143 CHIN Matthew W. 100% 95% 74% 38% 10% 1% -
144 CHAVES Matthew J. 100% 97% 82% 49% 17% 3% -
145 ROSBERG Dashiell W. 100% 89% 55% 19% 3% -
146 KOTOV Leonid 100% 93% 66% 29% 7% 1% -
147 MAKLIN Edward P. 100% 92% 62% 25% 5% -
148 FALLICK Ozzie 100% 95% 72% 38% 12% 2% -
149 LIN Daniel 100% 86% 52% 18% 3% -
150 BONSELL Vance 100% 64% 22% 4% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.