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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SCHEMBRI MCCORD Kruz T.	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
2	SONG Leonardo T.	-	-	-	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	OH SEAN	-	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
3	JITTAN daniel	-	-	-	1%	11%	43%	45%
5	SICHITIU Alexander	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
6	GATZA Logan	-	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	11%
7	CANO Marcos E.	-	8%	33%	44%	15%
8	LONG Connor M.	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
9	HEARN Christen J.	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
10	TIYA BIAYA K.	-	-	-	5%	30%	47%	18%
11	ELWOOD Sebastian F.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	45%	25%
12	SAGE Michael J.	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
13	MAHRAN-GALINDO Alex	-	-	2%	12%	37%	40%	9%
14	ZHAO Dylan L.	-	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
15	WONG Garrick G.	-	1%	15%	44%	40%
16	BERNABE Rafael	4%	24%	39%	26%	6%	1%	-
17	GIBBS Grant N.	3%	20%	41%	29%	7%
18	EMENHEISER Conrad	1%	8%	28%	38%	20%	5%	-
19	TANG Owen S.	-	-	1%	12%	44%	35%	7%
20	LEE Jacob	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%	-
21	ROSE Ben	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-	-
22	KNIZHNIK David	2%	15%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
23	TANG August L.	-	-	5%	20%	38%	29%	7%
24	SONG Austin	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
25	QIAN Jason H.	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	23%	3%
26	YANG Alan H.	4%	35%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
27	LEE Lukas	-	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%	1%
28	ROSS III Paul D.	4%	22%	38%	27%	7%	1%	-
29	QUINTERO Julian	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
30	DE COQUET Maximilian	14%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
31	BUCHENHORST Anton	7%	28%	40%	22%	3%	-	-
32	CHEN Junxuan	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-	-
33	HYUN Seojun	1%	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
34	BERNARD Jack B.	18%	45%	30%	7%	-
35	YUAN Austin	44%	43%	12%	1%	-
36	HUANG Justin	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-
37	PANTIN Ethan M.	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
38	WANG Brayden	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
39	DICKSON Evan	30%	51%	16%	2%	-	-	-
40	SUERSTEDT Haydn	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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