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The Durkan Rooster RYC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Durkan Fencing Academy - Garfield, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Yifei	-	-	2%	9%	26%	39%	24%
2	MCKEE Brynnley	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
3	BUSH Bethany	-	4%	16%	30%	31%	15%	3%
3	HUANG Rachael	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
5	FABRICANT Kioka R.	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
6	HALPERIN Elizabeth H.	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	15%	2%
7	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	8%	26%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
8	HU Anna	-	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
9	YOUNG Charlotte G.	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	13%
10	SRINATH Lyra A.	2%	17%	35%	31%	13%	3%	-
11	MERMEGAS Olivia	3%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
12	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
13	CHI Claire	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
14	KWON Ava	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
15	LOURENCO Alexandra	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
16	FOSS Persephone	1%	5%	16%	31%	30%	15%	3%
17	MEYERSON Michelle	3%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
18	KIM Audrey	68%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
19	CHAN Madeleine V.	1%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
20	MILLER Elizabeth	5%	30%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
21	PAGANO Emily	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.