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Rain City Super Youth Circuit (SYC)

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 2:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
2	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	-	-	-	7%	42%	50%
3	HSU Kaylin	-	1%	12%	37%	38%	12%
3	GU Maggie Runlin	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
5	FETECAU Ilinca	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
6	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	-	2%	17%	53%	27%
7	KIM Chloe	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
8	ZOU Ella	-	-	4%	18%	39%	32%	6%
9	SAIFEE Lamya	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	16%	2%
10	YAN Noelle	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	16%
11	HO Addison	-	2%	15%	39%	36%	8%
12	BEAVER Ava	-	1%	14%	39%	37%	10%
13	HU Jenna	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
14	DENG Melissa	5%	25%	39%	24%	7%	1%
15	PENG Charlotte	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%
16	DUAN Sophie	-	4%	31%	42%	20%	3%
17	BROWN Lola	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
18	LENK Sophie	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	7%
19	DAVIS Logan	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%
20	REN Kayley	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
21	SWANSON Alexa	-	1%	18%	42%	32%	7%
22	LUO Miranda	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	6%
23	ZHANG Gwenyth	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
24	ZHANG Ivy	1%	8%	29%	41%	18%	2%	-
25	GUAN Adeline	-	-	7%	29%	43%	21%
26	HAN Mia	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
27	DHARWADKAR Ovee	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
27	HAN Gian	-	1%	11%	34%	41%	11%	1%
29	PIQUETTE Annika	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
30	DESAI Esha	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
31	LIU Ariana	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-	-
32	TAO Ann	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
33	WYNN Kylie	-	7%	36%	39%	15%	2%
34	JIANG Yunyu (Grace)	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
35	LI Joy	11%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
36	NIRGUDE Esha	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
37	SAIFEE Zahra	22%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
38	CHU Felicity	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
39	WANG Mei	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
40	FUNG Sarafina	34%	52%	13%	1%	-	-
41	NAYGAS Alexandra	41%	51%	8%	-	-	-
42	WU Elynna	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-	-
43	CHOI Sophie	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
44	GUO Audrey	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
45	KRYLTSOVA Eva	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
46	LIU Angelina	46%	48%	6%	-	-	-
47	MAENG Gloria	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
48	SHELTONOYLER Lula	46%	46%	8%	-	-	-
49	DENG Claire	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
50	CHO Karis	22%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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