5th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, January 22, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JO Mia C.	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	41%
2	LOCKE Savannah	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	KOROL Neta	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	14%
3	CHEW Alexis T.	-	1%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
5	TRAN Ava D.	-	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
6	PENG Amber L.	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	19%
7	KIM Katherine	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
8	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%
9	FUNG Emma	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	17%	2%
10	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	-	1%	5%	18%	37%	32%	8%
11	CHEN Chloe I.	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
12	FERNANDES Thea	-	3%	16%	33%	33%	13%	2%
13	KOROL Dana	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
14	ZHANG Eunice	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
15	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
16	SUN Emily	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
17	MORADI Raiyan N.	-	5%	25%	40%	24%	5%
18	FUNG Vera	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%
19	CHANG Elizabeth	-	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%
20	SUN Ruoxi	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
21	CASTANEDA Keira	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
22	KANG Jiyoon	1%	7%	28%	40%	21%	4%
23	DO Leila	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	3%	-
24	GUAN Sydney	11%	53%	29%	6%	1%	-
25	ZHENG Zoe	34%	49%	15%	2%	-	-	-
26	LEE Allison	5%	23%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
27	WELBORN Calissa	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%	-
28	TALWALKAR Apoorva	-	< 1%	4%	22%	43%	30%
29	MU Allison	23%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
30	GUAN Sophie	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
31	SHUM Maya	10%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
32	PATTERSON Natalia	7%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
33	WANG Brina	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
34	MORENO Francesca	69%	27%	3%	-	-	-
35	KO Claire	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
36	WANG Celine S.	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
37	SHUM Elizabeth	1%	12%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
38	CABALU Alaina	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
39	MORALES Paulina	37%	48%	14%	1%	-	-	-
40	LEE Ellise	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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