UCD Crush on Competition 3 Weapon Open

Mixed Foil

Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 10:00 AM

Upper Hickey Gym - Davis, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MEINHOLD Li	-	-	-	2%	24%	73%
2	KHER Roan	1%	11%	39%	40%	9%
3	LI Shuang	-	1%	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
3	SEEDS Edward	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
5	DETERING Julian	-	-	-	5%	24%	43%	28%
6	LIANG Zixuan	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	29%	7%
7	WARRICK Braden	-	4%	21%	44%	28%	3%
8	MUIR Parker	-	1%	12%	38%	42%	7%
9	SCHEUERMANN Andrew	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
10	OCKENFUSS Jeremiah	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
11	HARRIS Otto	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
12	ROMO Ian	-	6%	30%	51%	12%	1%
13	FRANK Lauren	-	2%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
14	TON Kalista	-	2%	10%	28%	35%	20%	4%
15	FANG Jaden	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
16	SETLUR Bhrugu	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%
17	RAMIREZ Jordan	5%	26%	42%	23%	4%	-
18	ARREDONDO Katrina	16%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
19	KOSAI Jordyn	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
20	HUANG Alston	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
23	SOPER Benjamin	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
24	BECKER Ethan	19%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-	-
25	CHAUDHARY Atharv	12%	43%	34%	10%	1%	-
26	MAZZA Daniel	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
27	EBERHART Ava	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
28	LEONARD Kian	-	8%	34%	40%	16%	2%	-
29	JAIN Advik	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
30	HICKS Zachary	14%	37%	35%	13%	1%
32	PETERSON Lucas	9%	43%	35%	11%	2%	-	-
33	PEZESHKI Oliver	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
34	FORHAN Kathryn	1%	9%	29%	38%	19%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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