Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Adeline	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
2	MI Aileen	-	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	13%
3	LI Sophia M.	-	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
3	KIM Rachel	-	-	2%	14%	39%	36%	8%
5	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
6	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	-	1%	7%	36%	56%
7	BIODROWICZ Julia	-	-	2%	13%	38%	42%	5%
8	SHENG Chuxi	-	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
9	FEDELI Caterina S.	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	72%
10	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	1%	9%	41%	42%	7%
11	YURKOVA Mariia	-	-	4%	22%	42%	27%	4%
12	TUCKER ALARCON Frida	-	2%	14%	34%	35%	13%	1%
13	SONG Yuqiao Aprille	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
14	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
15	CHEN Renee	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
16	YANG Lingting	-	1%	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%
17	LIN Zhi tong	-	-	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%
18	NIKOLIC Alexandra	-	-	1%	13%	46%	36%	4%
19	HU Felice	-	9%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
20	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
21	CALISE Ella	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
22	TRACZ Calleigh D.	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
23	KUMAMOTO Shino	-	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
24	HAFEZ Tahiyah	1%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%	-
25	GANDLURI Sreehitha (Sarah)	1%	14%	38%	37%	9%	1%	-
26	ZULUETA Catherine	-	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
27	WEI Angela	-	5%	24%	42%	24%	5%	-
28	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	9%	-
29	OH Ceana	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
30	MCSHERRY Ava	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
31	LEE emily	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
32	LI Eleanor	5%	29%	43%	21%	3%	-	-
33	HSIEH Sabrina	2%	28%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
34	PARK Leah	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-
35	OWENS Elise	5%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-	-
36	PAULUS Isabella	2%	26%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-
37	TAN Isabella	34%	46%	18%	2%	-	-	-
38	SHAH Suhani	31%	42%	21%	5%	-	-
39	YU Jane	8%	35%	40%	15%	1%	-	-
40	DESERANNO Seren	2%	28%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
40	LANDMAN Charlotte	19%	47%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
42	WANG Reese	7%	32%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
43	GABAY Catherine	22%	47%	26%	4%	-	-	-
44	LEE Alice	46%	42%	11%	1%	-	-	-
44	SUNMAN Rory	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
44	HWANG Chanel	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
47	KRINGS Sasha	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-	-
48	HE Katherine	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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