The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Silicon Valley RYC/RCC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 2:00 PM

City Beach Fremont - Fremont, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Jessie	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	26%
2	WANG Victoria	-	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	8%
3	BLANCO Ariia	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
3	LIN Ariel	1%	8%	22%	33%	25%	10%	1%
5	MOLLINIER Anais	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
6	CAMAMA Tessa	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
7	KWON Genevie	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%
8	HANKINS Morgan	-	-	1%	7%	36%	57%
9	XU Serena	1%	10%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
10	MENDOZA zoie	-	2%	12%	36%	40%	10%
11	BURICEA Ada	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	20%	5%
12	WONG Cerise	18%	46%	29%	7%	-	-
13	TEACHWORTH Samantha	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
14	WANG Aria	4%	22%	41%	27%	7%	1%
15	GERARDIN Audrey	9%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
16	ZHUANG Lauren	4%	19%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
17	HABEK Sophia	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
18	WANG Zoe	10%	29%	33%	20%	7%	1%	-
19	YUNG Bethany	9%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
20	GILLIS-PADE Neallie	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
21	DAVIS Violet	1%	6%	26%	43%	23%	2%
22	COX Allison	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	7%	-
23	DWIGGINS Reese	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
24	XU Jessica	-	-	3%	15%	33%	36%	13%
25	GARINEY tanvi	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
26	ALEKSANDROVA Bella	1%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
27	JAQUISH Zoey	17%	36%	30%	13%	3%	-	-
28	TSE Harmony	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	9%
29	WANG Emma	1%	5%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
30	CHONG Seoyun	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	6%
31	BUCA Nora	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
32	JAIN Prisha	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
33	KANDALA Aanya	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	3%	-
34	WU Jalyn	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
35	SIMHADRI Sanjana	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
36	SCHOR Elisabeth	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
37	KELMAN Nora	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	7%
38	SUN Karolyn	1%	10%	31%	39%	17%	2%
39	DENEALE Lucia	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
40	CHO Dana	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
41	CHOWRIRA Reynah	4%	23%	39%	25%	7%	1%	-
42	MADANNAVAR Trisha	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
43	LEE Emily	2%	13%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
44	RADOV Una	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
45	LEE Grace	3%	25%	40%	25%	6%	1%	-
46	ALI Zoya	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.