The Cascade Clash | Portland SYC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Beaverton, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	-	-	3%	30%	66%
2	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	-	1%	5%	23%	44%	27%
3	HO Addison	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
3	GU Maggie Runlin	-	-	-	2%	23%	59%	16%
5	HSU Kaylin	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
6	LENK Sophie	-	3%	17%	38%	34%	8%
7	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
8	LUO Miranda	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
9	ZOU Ella	-	-	2%	19%	56%	22%	2%
10	YAN Noelle	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
10	YANG Audrey	-	-	5%	24%	46%	25%
12	CUI alivia	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%
13	REN Kayley	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
14	SAIFEE Lamya	7%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
15	FETECAU Ilinca	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	8%
16	HAFEZ Tahiyah	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
17	DAVIS Logan	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
18	DESERANNO Seren	3%	21%	44%	28%	5%
19	ZHANG Gwenyth	1%	10%	33%	39%	16%	2%
20	PENG Charlotte	-	4%	25%	46%	24%
21	BROWN Lola	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
22	DENG Melissa	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
23	KRYLTSOVA Eva	1%	15%	41%	36%	7%	-	-
24	DUAN Sophie	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	6%	1%
25	BEAVER Ava	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%
26	HAN Mia	3%	18%	40%	31%	8%	1%
27	SAIFEE Zahra	50%	40%	10%	1%	-
28	ZHANG Constance	12%	36%	36%	13%	2%	-
29	DESAI Esha	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-
30	NIRGUDE Esha	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
31	PIQUETTE Annika	14%	44%	33%	8%	1%
32	TULYAG Sayda	21%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
33	HAN Gian	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	3%
34	KIM Sydney	2%	14%	36%	34%	12%	1%
35	WU Elynna	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
36	NAYGAS Alexandra	10%	38%	39%	13%	1%	-	-
37	LI Joy	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
38	UHLIG Natalie	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
39	HAFEZ Sahar	14%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-
40	KEHOE Audrey	6%	30%	41%	20%	2%	-	-
41	WANG Mei	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
42	WILDE Aiza	24%	46%	25%	5%	-	-
43	LI Alice	43%	42%	14%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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