Duel of the East Coast RJCC/RYC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Valley Forge Event Center - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Renee	-	-	-	1%	9%	35%	54%
2	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	-	1%	15%	58%	25%
3	CASCONE Emily	-	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
3	YURKOVA Mariia	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
5	YANG Iris	-	-	1%	7%	28%	47%	18%
6	MAZILLE PAULINE	-	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	21%
7	PAULUS Sloane	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
7	LI Eleanor	11%	44%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
9	ZHENG Julie	-	-	-	1%	6%	34%	59%
10	LEVY Avery	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	19%	3%
11	WEI Angela	1%	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
12	WANG Sabrina	-	1%	10%	38%	40%	10%	1%
13	JOO Natalie	-	-	3%	16%	38%	36%	7%
14	CHOUET LISE	-	1%	8%	25%	38%	24%	4%
15	SHIM Grace	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
16	XIE Lillian	< 1%	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1%
17	PAULUS Isabella	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
18	CHAIDAKIS ALEXINA	-	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
19	YU Jane	5%	29%	41%	20%	4%	-	-
20	LOLA DUPUIS	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
21	DALBERG Meadow	18%	43%	31%	7%	1%	-	-
22	WANG Reese	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
23	KUSHLY DEA	-	-	2%	11%	33%	42%	12%
24	BURGESS Logan	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
25	SNYDERS Evelyn	13%	44%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
26	LIAW Elaine	-	1%	11%	38%	38%	11%	1%
27	LIU Caydence	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%	-
28	JIANG Claire	2%	13%	31%	33%	16%	3%	-
29	CHEN Sophie	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%	-
30	LI Han	25%	41%	25%	8%	1%	-	-
31	BADLANI Diya	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
32	JIN Sophie	38%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
33	WANG Sophie	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
34	SMIDA Julia	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	-
35	SIROTA Francis	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
36	WANG Sunny	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%	-
37	MALONE Ella	2%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%	-
38	LIU Lucy	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
39	JIN Amie	18%	43%	31%	7%	1%	-	-
40	LIU Long	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
41	ECHNAT Izzy	21%	45%	28%	5%	-	-	-
42	BOGLE Sophia	2%	21%	45%	26%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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