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DCFC Youth Challenge #2

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 1:30 PM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ABBOUD Michael	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	46%
2	LEE Aiden	1%	5%	20%	35%	29%	9%
3	SINGH Aryaman	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	IORIO Max	-	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	6%
5	LEE JoonWon	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
6	KANG Eunwoo	-	-	2%	10%	33%	44%	12%
7	CHHU Allen	-	2%	14%	35%	38%	11%
8	CHEN Brian	-	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
9	FISHMAN Rahm	-	2%	12%	36%	38%	12%
10	SINGH Ravin	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
11	PETROW Zoryan	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
12	SAUNIER Cameron	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
13	NIX Reagan	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
14	DAN Rex	-	5%	20%	36%	28%	9%	1%
15	CARNALL Hunter	5%	22%	36%	28%	9%	1%
16	ALI Farhan	4%	23%	37%	26%	9%	1%	-
17	LE BORGNE Matthieu	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
18	CHENH Justin	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
19	WINTERHOF William	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	1%
20	BOGDANOVSKAYA Elizaveta	10%	33%	38%	17%	2%	-
21	KISH Nicholas	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
22	HULL Liam	-	6%	29%	45%	18%	2%
23	MODANLOU Navid	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
24	KIM Kailyn	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
25	FORDER Isabel	7%	26%	36%	24%	7%	1%
26	SOLDATOVA Sophia	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
27	LEE DoWon	2%	11%	28%	33%	19%	5%	1%
28	BUI Ryan	10%	30%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
29	SODANI Luke	27%	45%	22%	5%	-	-	-
30	KUPPUSAMY Kotravel	9%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
31	KONG Brandon	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
32	SERMONS Asa	1%	7%	23%	36%	25%	7%	1%
33	WRIGHT Madison	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
34	GAVASHELI Margarita	5%	25%	41%	25%	4%	-
35	LYNCH-HURIA Chike	13%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-
36	GIN Kaan	9%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
37	NOH Rachel	10%	33%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
38	PAUL Micah	2%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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