Goldfinch ROC D1A, D2, Vet, RJC and chair fencing

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 12:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WADE-CURRIE Ava S.	-	-	-	1%	9%	35%	56%
2	RAKHOVSKI Alexandra	-	-	5%	24%	43%	27%
3	DAMRATOSKI Anna Z.	-	-	-	4%	21%	46%	29%
3	WU Fan	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
5	HONG Elaine	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
6	LIN Elaine	-	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
7	JOYAL Anne-Sophie	-	-	6%	27%	47%	20%
8	HICKS Grace	1%	18%	38%	31%	11%	1%
9	SPRINGER Sierra	-	1%	6%	28%	48%	18%
10	LONADIER Keira	-	-	1%	9%	41%	49%
11	TOLBA Salma	-	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
12	TYTELL Elizabeth	-	2%	20%	42%	29%	7%	1%
13	SHU Youshan	-	5%	24%	44%	24%	4%
14	WONG Alexandra R.	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
15	CHEN Jingyun	1%	11%	29%	34%	20%	5%	-
16	HUANG NATALIE	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
17	BLIN Margaux J.	-	-	-	5%	23%	46%	26%
18	ZHENG Linden	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
19	PAN Michelle	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
20	LI Suri	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
21	TRAN Helena	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%	1%
22	NGUYEN Julia	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%
23	YOU Isabel B.	1%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
24	XIE Fiona	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
25	SMUK Alexandra S.	-	5%	20%	34%	29%	11%	1%
26	HANIN Katherine	-	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%	2%
27	GUJJA Misha	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	7%
28	GUO Amanda	8%	36%	38%	15%	3%	-
29	YANG Tiffany	5%	25%	41%	25%	5%	-
30	PRIHODKO Nina	-	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%
31	NGUYEN Ashley L.	1%	9%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
32	LATORA Jordan	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
33	CLAYTON Alanna	-	-	4%	22%	46%	27%
34	KANEVSKY Samantha	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
35	KIZILBASH Zara	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	9%
36	CHANG Ella	3%	20%	39%	28%	8%	1%
37	SHEIN Evita	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-
37	SANLIKOL Suzan	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
39	LAMBERT Camille L.	7%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-
39	TOP Melek	12%	42%	35%	10%	1%	-
41	SPOONER Julissa	6%	29%	42%	20%	3%	-
42	HIGH Madeline	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
43	SELIZHUK Stasya	22%	44%	28%	6%	-	-
44	LIU Simiao	50%	41%	8%	1%	-	-	-
45	YANG Charlotte	40%	40%	16%	3%	-	-	-
46	PRADHAN Aditi	65%	32%	2%	-	-	-
47	HILLYER Megan	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
48	BARREIRO Katrina	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
49	FANG Kayla	26%	55%	17%	2%	-	-	-
50	SONG Jaeyi	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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