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Boston Fencing Club ROC

Div II Women's Épée

Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIN Elaine	-	-	3%	20%	47%	30%
2	CHA Eugenie	-	4%	31%	44%	18%	2%
3	WONG Alexandra R.	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	21%
3	SPRINGER Sierra	-	7%	31%	43%	19%
5	EDWARDS Auprell	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
6	TRAN Helena	1%	8%	36%	38%	15%	2%
7	BENNETT Olivia	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
8	SMUK Daria A.	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
9	LI Fei	5%	42%	39%	13%	1%
10	TYTELL Elizabeth	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
11	BAJAJ Nikita K.	-	-	5%	25%	44%	25%
12	GUJJA Misha	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
13	MUELLER Emma M.	-	5%	25%	43%	27%
14	PRIHODKO Nina	-	10%	36%	40%	14%
15	BALSKUS Sophia	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
16	ABRAMSON Mariela R.	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
17	SONG Angela	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
18	BYK Laura	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
19	CHISHOLM Phoebe C.	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%
20	SHU Youshan	-	2%	17%	38%	33%	10%
21	AI Amy	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
22	LI Alisha	-	2%	16%	36%	34%	11%
23	ZHENG Linden	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
24	HICKS Grace	3%	22%	41%	28%	6%
25	POIRIER Ariane	-	-	3%	19%	47%	31%
26	AZMEH nour	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	17%
27	REYNOLDS Nancy	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
28	SOTELO Michelle	4%	23%	41%	26%	7%	1%
29	SAAL Anna	-	6%	29%	44%	21%
30	LIN Ashley	1%	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%
31	RYDMAN Grace	34%	47%	16%	2%	-	-
32	TIBBETTS Lily	81%	19%	1%	-	-	-
33	MASTRONARDI Laura	-	5%	35%	43%	15%	2%
34	DENG Annie	-	5%	28%	40%	23%	4%
35	PAYNE Elizabeth	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
36	MURDOCH ROY Grace	7%	26%	36%	23%	6%	1%
37	SOMOL Emma	28%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
38	ZOU Jiayi-Hannah	49%	43%	8%	1%	-	-
39	SANLIKOL Suzan	12%	64%	21%	2%	-	-
40	HUANG Ziyan	28%	53%	17%	2%	-	-
41	JENSEN MJ	19%	44%	29%	8%	1%	-
42	DANNHAUSER Carol A.	10%	31%	35%	19%	4%	-
43	COVINO Mila	77%	21%	2%	-	-
44	CONNOLLY Natasha	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
45	SONG Jaeyi	30%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
46	BECK Sara	50%	38%	11%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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