Collegiate Cup RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 8:00 AM

RIMAC Arena @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KER Grace	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
2	ANDRES Katherine A.	-	-	-	2%	13%	44%	41%
3	HWANG Gabriela M.	-	1%	6%	20%	36%	30%	8%
3	KRASTEV Minna	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
5	XU Ellen	-	-	1%	10%	45%	44%
6	VESTEL Mira B.	-	-	-	5%	28%	55%	11%
7	GHAYALOD Reya	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
8	WANG Zidan	2%	12%	29%	33%	18%	5%	-
9	FEARNS Zara A.	-	-	-	5%	25%	47%	22%
10	LI Victoria J.	-	-	3%	15%	40%	41%
11	BELTRAN REYES Alejandra	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	69%
12	CHIN Sophia J.	-	-	2%	16%	51%	30%
13	ERIKSON Kira R.	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
14	TONG Jessie	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
15	ENDO Miyuki N.	-	1%	9%	35%	41%	14%
16	HU Michelle	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
17	MENDIOLA RITCHIE Ingrid	-	1%	13%	38%	37%	11%
18	YAM Danika	-	3%	17%	39%	32%	8%	-
19	NGUYEN Siena	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%	-
20	WU Lanting	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
21	HUAI Delilah	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
22	BARNOVITZ Maya	-	2%	14%	35%	35%	12%	1%
23	RAMIREZ Mirka A.	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	1%
24	LIU Sydney	12%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-
25	YAO Rainie	11%	41%	36%	11%	1%	-
26	GOLOVITSER Maya	34%	49%	15%	2%	-	-
27	FENG Alicia G.	3%	27%	42%	23%	5%	-	-
28	TUNG Renee	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
29	BROCK Sydney	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
30	HITOMI Nadya	1%	11%	36%	41%	11%	1%
31	GRULICH Rayaana	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%	-
32	YANG Lea	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
33	HUANG Madeline	2%	16%	45%	30%	7%	1%
34	PANIGRAHI Kingsley	4%	27%	44%	22%	3%	-
35	WIGGINS Yaanathia	2%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
36	GOSAVI Aabolee	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
37	CHRISTOTHOULOU Olympia C.	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	7%	1%
38	CHO Michelle	5%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-	-
39	SAWANT Asmi	49%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
40	GOURNEAU Sophie L.	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
41	STONE Coral	5%	29%	41%	21%	4%	-	-
42	PANIGRAHI Emersen	10%	43%	35%	11%	1%	-
43	WANG Peijia	36%	48%	14%	1%	-	-
44	SOWERS Lia	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
45	YANG JIAQI KIKI	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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