Collegiate Cup RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 1:00 PM

RIMAC Arena @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Joy Zhaoyi	-	-	4%	23%	48%	25%
2	CASTANEDA Erika L.	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
3	SOOD Ishani S.	-	-	-	1%	7%	36%	56%
3	CHO Cameron S.	-	-	3%	21%	46%	30%
5	KIM Katherine	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
6	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
7	DUAN Konnie	-	1%	9%	36%	41%	13%
8	LEE Ji Ahn	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%	-
9	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	1%	7%	26%	39%	22%	4%
10	LOCKE Savannah	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
11	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
12	CHO Gracie L.	-	-	2%	11%	33%	42%	12%
13	HAN Crystal	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%
14	LEE Allison	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%	-
15	FUNG Emma	-	1%	7%	29%	40%	21%	2%
16	DO Leila	8%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-
17	CHEW Alexis T.	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
18	CHANG Elizabeth	-	1%	12%	35%	37%	14%	1%
19	SUN Emily	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-
20	NEWHARD Zelia "Zizi"	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
21	GUAN Sydney	23%	49%	24%	3%	-	-
22	KANG Jiyoon	-	8%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
23	CHEN Chloe I.	-	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	4%
24	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	-	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%
25	HOBSON Ava	-	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
26	SHUM Elizabeth	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
27	KIM Rachel	1%	11%	33%	38%	14%	2%
28	PENG Amber L.	-	-	6%	32%	44%	18%
29	CHO Taylor S.	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
30	SUH Kailey E.	-	2%	15%	39%	33%	11%	1%
31	SHUM Maya	4%	34%	40%	18%	4%	-	-
32	HAN Ashley	4%	27%	47%	19%	3%	-
33	WANG Brina	2%	44%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
34	FERNANDES Thea	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
35	MORALES Paulina	43%	44%	12%	1%	-	-
36	YANICELLI Sloane	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
37	GUAN Sophie	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
38	LUH Mia P.	1%	17%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
39	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
40	CABALU Alaina	5%	44%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
41	WELBORN Calissa	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
42	KO Claire	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
43	YAN Noelle	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
44	MCKAY Teresa	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-	-
45	CZAPLA Dominika	92%	8%	-	-	-	-	-
46	MORENO Francesca	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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