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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HU Jayden	1%	6%	20%	32%	27%	11%	2%
2	KHANNA Adamantis	-	-	-	2%	11%	38%	49%
3	CHANG Timothy	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	7%
3	AGARWAAL Yohan	6%	23%	35%	25%	10%	2%	-
5	ROPER F. Elijah	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
6	KARAVAS Nicholas	14%	33%	32%	16%	4%	1%	-
7	KOZLOV Lucas	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
8	BEAL Colton	1%	8%	26%	38%	24%	3%
9	KAZMI Saif	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
10	MARTINSON Torm	-	1%	5%	19%	37%	30%	8%
11	MERMEGAS Alexander	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
12	SAGE Nikolai	-	6%	29%	42%	20%	3%
13	ZHAO Royce	-	2%	10%	25%	34%	23%	6%
14	SO Morgan	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%
15	SONG Aidan	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
16	KUMAR Avinash	-	1%	6%	19%	33%	30%	11%
17	ARCHIBALD Zachary	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
18	YURCISIN Harrison	1%	6%	20%	32%	27%	12%	2%
19	CROOKS Andrew	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
20	FRANCOIS Gabriel	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	13%
21	MIAO Heqi	-	3%	14%	30%	34%	17%	2%
22	YURT Zihni	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
23	CHERNAEV Antonio	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
24	JIN Louis	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
25	ISAYENKO Daniel	-	2%	9%	24%	33%	24%	7%
26	NGO Emerson	2%	11%	27%	32%	21%	7%	1%
27	WEI Hunter	1%	11%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
28	STOLCKE Julian	1%	9%	24%	33%	23%	8%	1%
29	SO Dylan	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
30	CHAN Ewan	-	3%	24%	47%	22%	4%	-
31	HALPER Benjamin	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
32	LAU Kyrus	4%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
33	LIUZHANG Ben	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-	-
34	SO Peyton	6%	27%	37%	22%	7%	1%	-
35	SUN Stephen	6%	23%	35%	26%	10%	1%
36	ZHAO Alexander	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
37	YOUNG Parker	19%	37%	29%	12%	3%	-	-
38	DATTILIO Aidan	19%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
39	O'KEEFE Brody	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
40	STEINERT Octavian	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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