CT State High School Championships

Men's Foil

Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 11:00 AM

North Haven High School - North Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	BREIER Matthew F.	-	-	1%	40%	59%
2	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	1%	15%	51%	32%
3	PITERBARG Maxim	-	2%	22%	76%
4	VALENTON Timothy	-	10%	57%	32%
5	GREENLEAF Paul	51%	39%	10%	1%	< 1%
6	DEVAUX Ryan T.	8%	38%	45%	9%
7	TAN Benjamin	-	3%	20%	52%	26%
9	LORANGER Peter	5%	32%	46%	17%
10	GRANADOS Luis	41%	45%	13%	1%
12	BOYLE Aiden P.	-	2%	19%	54%	25%
12	CHANDRAMOHAN Aran	6%	31%	45%	18%
14	SHIKHMANQ Lennon	3%	28%	60%	9%
15	SAMMATARO Corey	9%	44%	41%	7%
17	LYNCH Ryan	25%	48%	25%	2%
18	LUNA Nathan	80%	18%	1%	-
19	WU Benjamin	56%	36%	8%	1%
21	YANG Samuel	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
23	DALY Brendan	3%	45%	45%	7%
24	NERI Stephen	36%	47%	16%	1%	-
25	WERTZ Erik	38%	43%	16%	2%
26	FORD Zechariah	7%	41%	43%	9%
27	HAYLON Caleb	30%	52%	17%	1%
29	CECARELLI Andrew	9%	33%	41%	17%
30	PENDLETON Noah	11%	41%	40%	8%	-
32	SULLIVAN Redmond	51%	41%	8%	-
33	PASCUCILLA Sands	1%	14%	49%	36%
34	TESSMAN Henry	21%	48%	29%	3%	-
37	HECK John	1%	30%	49%	20%
38	LEFFINGWELL Mathew	3%	25%	52%	20%
40	ROWE Jason	6%	29%	44%	21%
41	HARRIS Ayden	2%	23%	45%	27%	4%
42	VALENCIA Derek	4%	27%	46%	23%
47	BARTLETT Joseph	3%	32%	47%	16%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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