South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Monday, January 17, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Main Ballroom - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	JOO Jeein	-	-	1%	14%	52%	33%
2	WANG Zhuoyi	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
3	HOLZ Lucas	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
3	MUNGUIA Nathan	1%	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
5	ANDRES Michael	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
6	TANI Tino	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
7	WANG Tiger	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
8	KOVALEV Daniil N.	-	4%	21%	42%	29%	2%
9	LIU Yijin	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
10	LI AYDEN	-	4%	20%	40%	31%	4%
11	ARISTOV Ilya	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
12	SUNG Julian	-	-	-	2%	22%	75%
13	XIAO Brayden	14%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
14	LI Yidong	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
15	CAO Oliver	10%	33%	38%	16%	3%	-
16	JIA Howard	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
17	KROON Landon	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
18	GREMILLION Obadiah	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
19	CHEN Cooper	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
20	JOUFFLINEAU Yohann	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
21	BRUM Charles E.	-	6%	24%	42%	25%	3%
22	LIANG Preston	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-
23	YANG Phillip	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
24	BURRES kenneth	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
25	GREENSTEIN Viktor	3%	20%	40%	29%	8%	-
26	DANIELSON Charlie	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
27	HERDA Tiger	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
28	CHEN Evan	3%	15%	32%	33%	16%	3%
29	DANESCHVAR Arman	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
30	HAN Kyle	40%	42%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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