South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Junior Women's Foil

Monday, January 17, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Main Ballroom - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PENG Amber L.	-	-	1%	14%	50%	35%
2	LOCKE Savannah	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
3	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
3	CHEN Chloe I.	-	4%	23%	52%	20%	1%
5	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	1%	11%	37%	40%	11%
6	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	-	1%	12%	48%	39%
7	TORRES JIMENA	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
8	DUAN Konnie	-	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
9	HWANG Alison	-	3%	18%	36%	32%	10%
10	CHANG Elizabeth	-	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
11	KETTELLE Molly	-	7%	36%	44%	12%	1%
12	CHEW Alexis T.	-	-	4%	19%	40%	30%	7%
13	ESTRADA alondra maria	4%	25%	40%	24%	6%	1%	-
14	CHO Cameron S.	-	-	4%	31%	56%	8%
15	CHOI Kailyn	14%	42%	35%	8%	-	-
16	MORADI Raiyan N.	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
17	PRIETO Sofia M.	-	-	3%	18%	40%	32%	7%
18	GUAN Sophie	-	5%	23%	39%	25%	6%	1%
19	WANG Brina	10%	38%	36%	14%	2%	-
20	MORALES Paulina	17%	48%	30%	5%	-	-	-
21	LEE Ji Ahn	1%	7%	26%	38%	24%	5%
22	PATTERSON Natalia	13%	42%	37%	8%	-	-
23	KO Claire	1%	13%	44%	35%	7%	-
24	OLORVIDA Isabella	14%	40%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
25	LUO Annabella	45%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
26	MORENO Francesca	38%	51%	11%	1%	-	-
27	CABALU Alaina	4%	28%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
28	GUAN Sydney	37%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
29	ZHONG Aleena	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
30	GIVEN Katherine	36%	48%	15%	2%	-	-
31	JANEW Anastasia	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
32	KIM Lydia	< 1%	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	6%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.