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2022 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 4:00 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
2	LIN James G.	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
3	TSAI Max W.	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	10%
3	KNIZHNIK David	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
5	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
6	SONG Noel	2%	13%	29%	31%	18%	5%	1%
7	PITERBARG Maxim	-	3%	16%	39%	34%	8%
8	SEMAPAKDI-CHANG Kaiden	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	1%
9	JIMENEZ Lukas	-	-	1%	7%	26%	44%	22%
10	TSIMIKLIS Yanni	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	24%
11	TAHOUN Mostafa	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%
12	LIU Derek	-	3%	19%	41%	30%	6%
13	LEE Jonah	-	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	12%
14	YOON DYLAN	-	1%	12%	40%	40%	7%
15	WONG Jackson	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
16	MATSAKH Philip	1%	8%	27%	37%	23%	5%
17	MURRAY Maximo	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
18	GUO Justin	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	13%
19	LI Ayren	-	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
20	MILLER Jordan	-	2%	24%	47%	24%	3%
21	LI Aaron	-	-	3%	17%	39%	32%	8%
22	KAPOOR Aayan	6%	31%	38%	20%	5%	-
23	RNO Kyler	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
24	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%
25	WANG Brian	2%	12%	27%	32%	20%	6%	1%
26	NICOLL James	1%	9%	31%	38%	18%	4%	-
27	DALBERG Anders	16%	35%	31%	15%	4%	-	-
28	NICOLL William	-	1%	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
29	FRANK Amir	13%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-	-
30	POPE Alexander	1%	9%	33%	38%	16%	3%	-
31	GLEBA Nico	-	5%	37%	42%	14%	1%
32	SHAPIRO Leon	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
33	LEE Brendan	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
34	MAGALONG William	48%	45%	7%	-	-	-
35	LIU Ryan	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
36	UNGERER Roger M.	2%	11%	26%	32%	21%	7%	1%
37	AKYAMAC Bora	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
38	REZA Farazi	2%	10%	26%	32%	22%	7%	1%
39	NICOLSON William	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
40	RADOSLAVOV Ivan-Asen	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
41	BROOKS Matthew	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
42	HIGGASON Hugh	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
43	SZE Benjamin	45%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
44	AMEND Jake	5%	27%	43%	23%	3%	-	-
45	GAO Gary	38%	55%	7%	-	-	-
46	TINE Peter	5%	32%	41%	18%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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