3rd Annual Precision Invitational RJCC

Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CASTRO-SOLIS HUGO ABEL	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
2	ROCHA Alejandro	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	SWORDS Evan F.	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%
3	RAJA Arnav	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
5	MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	26%	2%
6	TAO Jeffrey	-	1%	10%	37%	40%	12%
7	AVAKIAN Alec	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
8	LIM William J.	-	2%	16%	37%	35%	9%
9	LIN Daniel	-	-	2%	18%	45%	35%
9	BAUER Hank E.	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
11	LO Andrew T.	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
12	KUMAR Sachit	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%
13	NIETO Titus P.	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
14	BYON Adrian	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%	-
15	LO Konnor	-	1%	9%	35%	42%	14%
16	GAO Albert	-	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%
17	GILSHTEYN Jacob	3%	22%	47%	23%	4%	-
18	BONN-ELCHONESS Peter	10%	46%	34%	10%	1%	-
19	PATRICO Peter	-	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%
20	BYON Julian	15%	36%	33%	14%	2%	-
21	LI Yiwei	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	-
22	YANG Joshua	10%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
23	VELTZ Tyler J.	51%	39%	9%	1%	-	-
24	GIANETTO Ethan K.	1%	11%	34%	38%	16%	2%
25	KIM Evan	52%	40%	8%	-	-	-
26	LEE Noah	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
27	LINDSEY Aiden	19%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
28	REED Samuel J.	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	-
29	BRAKEY Ryan	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
30	HERRERA aragon	20%	51%	25%	4%	-	-
30	WANG HongXi	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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