The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

2022 OFC Summer Challenge

Mixed Épée

Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 8:00 AM

OLYMPIC FENCERS CLUB - Johns Creek, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	ANDERSON Mathew T.	-	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
2	WANG Aidan	4%	18%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-	-
3	MODULLA Yathin	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	14%	3%
3	EVANS Grant	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
5	JUNG Ho(Daniel) (Daniel) Y.	-	-	-	4%	17%	40%	39%
6	VALES Keyan	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3%
7	TREBON Hayden	-	-	-	1%	7%	23%	40%	29%
8	PARCELEWICZ John M.	3%	14%	28%	31%	18%	6%	1%
9	LEE Kennith	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
10	ZHANG Eric	1%	5%	17%	30%	29%	15%	4%	-
11	MARSHALL Wesley	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
12	BIRT David (Dave) L.	-	-	1%	8%	24%	37%	25%	5%
13	SARIKONDA Akhil	1%	16%	35%	32%	13%	3%	-
14	SCHARF Ryan	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	7%	1%
15	LABROZZI Aidan	-	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
16	JUNG Elliot	4%	20%	34%	28%	12%	3%	-
17	SCHERNIKAU Jack	4%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%	-
18	ATON Dave	-	4%	16%	30%	31%	16%	3%
19	HUTTO Joshua	-	2%	8%	21%	31%	26%	11%	2%
20	WEBB Jacob T.	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	21%	2%
21	NGUYEN Audrey	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	4%	-
22	YANAMANDRA Sidhansh	1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	2%	-
23	EDWARDS Auprell	16%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
24	ZIMINSKY Karel M.	-	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
24	MOON Seojung	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-	-
26	ADIBZADEH Mehrdad	1%	5%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
27	BASKIN Miles	-	1%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
28	WANG Bryan	-	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%
29	MAXWELL Austin	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
30	CUI Jack	2%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
31	LIN Kason	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
32	GUNDUBOGULA Raj	-	16%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
33	BYBEE Lucy J.	-	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
34	PARK Judy	2%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
35	LEE Daehyeon	19%	37%	29%	12%	2%	-	-	-
36	HARTIG GUERRA Vera	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-
37	CHASTAIN Allie	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.