March NAC

Veteran Men's Saber

Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MOREHOUSE Timothy F.	-	-	-	4%	32%	64%
2	THORNTON Ronald J.	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
3	FRIEDBERG John M.	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
3	HERRERA Richard K.	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
5	KALLIO Jeffrey E.	-	-	-	-	5%	46%	49%
6	MATT Chris	-	-	8%	37%	45%	10%
7	CHU Kevin	-	2%	12%	35%	39%	13%
8	ZIPPER Michael E.	1%	9%	32%	41%	15%	2%
9	BACON Michael F.	-	-	-	2%	25%	73%
10	KRASOWITZ Jason	-	3%	16%	40%	36%	5%	-
11	VIDOVSZKY Tamas J.	-	-	-	-	8%	53%	38%
12	MAURI Gherardo	-	1%	8%	31%	46%	15%
13	KEEFER Philip E.	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
14	ESCUETA Jr Antonio V.	1%	14%	41%	35%	9%	-
15	MALNATI Donald H.	-	1%	10%	33%	43%	13%
16	PENTON Robert	-	1%	17%	47%	31%	4%
17	FERRARO Pietro	-	-	7%	34%	49%	9%
18	DOLEGIEWICZ Mariusz	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
19	BUKOWSKI Todd	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	8%
20	ZOLLER Matthew	13%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
21	LEAR Donald W.	1%	14%	38%	36%	11%	1%
22	GRAFF Jon	6%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-
23	KAOURIS George	1%	7%	27%	42%	20%	2%
24	CHEN Lester	14%	48%	31%	7%	-	-
25	SEIDEL Jonathan J.	1%	12%	51%	31%	5%	-
26	CHAN David	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
27	DHAR asif	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
28	MIGHELL Jason	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%	-	-
29	MARTINEZ Mario D.	20%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
30	DIRSMITH Benjamin J.	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
31	CHO Yutong	2%	23%	44%	26%	5%	-
32	STATEN Joseph	59%	37%	4%	-	-	-
33	SAMOTESSOV Vladislav	7%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-
34	BAKER Keith L.	3%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
35	NEMAZIE David A.	1%	10%	38%	40%	11%	1%
36	SU Ji	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
37	ZINNI Gene	26%	58%	15%	1%	-	-
38	GOMES John F.	56%	37%	7%	-	-	-
38	REUBEN Steven	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
40	GRAINGER Robert	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
41	LIBERS Alexander M.	6%	27%	41%	23%	3%	-	-
42	DAWSON Todd	12%	38%	36%	12%	2%	-
43	MCLAUGHLIN Joseph R.	31%	48%	18%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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