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The Duelist Open 22

Mixed Foil

Saturday, August 27, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Bellevile High School Gymnasium - Belleville, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KAISER Hans Z.	-	-	-	1%	14%	85%
2	TRASCHENKO POCHMARA Jacob	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
3	GATRELL Mitchell E.	-	2%	10%	28%	40%	21%
3	STRINGER David	-	4%	26%	54%	14%	1%	-
5	POON Alvin	-	-	-	1%	15%	59%	25%
6	COTTER Jeffrey V.	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
7	NYKAMP Caleb	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%
8	WU Benjamin (Ben)	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
9	HAMILTON Brock B.	-	6%	28%	44%	19%	2%
10	SKUBIK Benjamin A.	-	-	-	-	8%	40%	51%
11	PHILPOT Eden E.	1%	6%	20%	34%	30%	10%
12	CHO Michael	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
13	HAW Keith F.	2%	14%	38%	35%	11%	-
14	GNEUHS Sam	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
15	LIU Ethan	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
16	SANTOS Annika Beatrice I.	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
17	MITTAL Sanil	3%	22%	40%	28%	6%	< 1%
18	VAN BUREN Brett J.	-	2%	13%	38%	37%	10%
18	KELBLEY Elena J.	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-
20	WILKINS Mateo	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%	-
21	SWITALA Benjamin T.	-	-	3%	21%	53%	21%	2%
22	FOXWORTH John P.	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
23	GREEN Zachary J.	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
24	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	23%	43%	27%	6%	-	-
25	KIM Daniel	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%	-
26	SORRENTINO Salvatore	3%	18%	36%	32%	11%	1%
27	TOWNE Benjamin	8%	42%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
28	BASS Nathan	6%	34%	45%	14%	1%	-	-
29	MCGRATH Polina S.	32%	41%	21%	5%	1%	-
30	SKOURLETOS Maria	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
31	VALENTINO Paul	10%	39%	36%	13%	1%	-
32	BREWNER Ethan	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-	-
33	LINDOW Connor	9%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
34	RIVERA Ricky N.	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%
35	LEE Claire L.	14%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
36	VAN ALLEN Benjamin	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%	-
37	BAKKE Alexander	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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