Fortune Fencing Summer RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, August 28, 2022 at 3:00 PM

Ontario Convention Center - Hall A & B - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
2	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	REN Kayley	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
5	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	1%	5%	21%	45%	29%
6	DENG Melissa	-	-	1%	11%	38%	41%	9%
7	HO Addison	-	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	14%
8	KIM Sydney	-	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
9	HAN Gian	-	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	21%
10	ZHANG Ivy	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%
11	GUO Audrey	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
12	POEI Lauren	-	1%	7%	26%	40%	24%	3%
13	DUAN Sophie	-	-	2%	12%	32%	39%	15%
14	LUO Miranda	-	-	1%	6%	24%	45%	25%
15	TULYAG Sayda	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
16	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%	1%
17	YONG Rosalind	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%	1%
18	KRYLTSOVA Eva	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%	-
19	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	1%	6%	21%	38%	29%	5%
20	ZHANG Viviana	-	2%	9%	26%	35%	23%	5%
21	UHLIG Natalie	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%	-
22	MA Isabelle	5%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
23	TAO Ann	-	-	4%	16%	36%	35%	8%
24	LING Camryn	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
25	HAN Mia	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
26	CHANG Olivia	5%	22%	34%	27%	10%	2%	-
27	DENG Claire	-	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	2%
28	LIU Ariana	15%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
29	LI Joy	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
30	LI Alice	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
31	SAIFEE Zahra	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
32	BAE Yooju	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
33	LIU Angelina	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
34	ZEE Savannah	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
35	SAH Madeleine	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-	-
36	FUNG Sarafina	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
36	LUCAS Ava	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
38	MA Yifei	-	3%	12%	29%	35%	18%	3%
39	CHANG Lydia	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
40	BENNYHOFF Naia	-	8%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
41	YU Sophie	8%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
42	RUI Jessie	2%	15%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
43	CHU Felicity	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%	-
44	ZHOU Joi	12%	39%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
45	HUGHES Olivia	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
46	SOE Hayleigh	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-	-
47	LIM Kensie	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
48	WU Chingfei Amber	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
49	NGUYEN Chloe	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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