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Boston Fencing Club RJCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 3:00 PM

Boston Fencing club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KWALWASSER Eric	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
2	BAE Jason I.	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	34%
3	BROU Inkosi	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
3	CHTERENTAL Alex	-	-	6%	28%	44%	21%
5	LIU Mingyang Ryan	-	-	7%	34%	59%
6	NG Jeremiah	-	4%	21%	37%	29%	8%
7	LIN Maxim	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
8	LAU Justin Y.	2%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%
9	MICLAUS Justin	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
9	DEPEW Spencer	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
11	HUROWITZ Max	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
12	SHAHZAD Azlan A.	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
13	ZENG Noah	-	-	6%	28%	43%	21%
14	LIU Kevin	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
15	HUANG Connor	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
16	SUGIURA Samuel	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
17	GINSBERG Jordan	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
18	DOWNEY Baran	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
19	GONG Jerry	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
20	PERRON Robert	1%	12%	40%	35%	11%	1%
21	ATWOOD Griffin	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-
22	HUANG Alexander C.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
23	NGUYEN Anthony	1%	13%	41%	34%	10%	1%
24	DUMOULIN Gabriel	9%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%
25	KESSLER Nathan	3%	25%	44%	24%	3%
26	WANG Daniel	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
27	KANG evan	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
28	FIELDS Matthew S.	-	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%
29	TAUER Sam	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
30	LEUNG Ian	6%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
31	KUMAR Arjun	32%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-
32	MATTOO Surya	28%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
33	SIMMONS John M.	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
34	KATZ Ryan	1%	15%	41%	36%	7%
35	MUNGOVAN Matthew	7%	36%	40%	15%	1%
36	SEN Christian	8%	51%	33%	7%	1%	-
37	LAUB William	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
38	EYBELMAN Ariel	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
39	DIMATTEO Michael	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
40	ALMEDA Stanislav	44%	43%	12%	1%	-	-
41	LEE Andrew	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
42	CHENG Hong	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
43	LIN Philip T.	6%	26%	36%	23%	8%	1%	-
44	WITCZAK Mateus	13%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-
44	DESAUTELS Connor	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
46	MATTOO Deven	57%	35%	7%	1%	-
47	CHIN Nigel	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
48	KLAUBER Raphael	78%	21%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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