DCFC Youth Epee Challenge

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 3:00 PM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LE BORGNE Matthieu	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	14%
2	PETROW Zoryan	2%	24%	41%	26%	7%	1%
3	DAN Rex	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
3	GANTSOUDES Isaac	-	-	2%	9%	26%	40%	24%
5	SODANI Luke	4%	28%	43%	21%	3%	< 1%
6	PILSON Rebecca	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
7	BOGDANOVSKAYA Elizaveta	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
8	SIEDOW William	-	1%	16%	40%	34%	9%
9	AYOTTE James	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
10	LEE Aiden	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
11	MODANLOU Navid	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
12	HEITFIELD Markus	6%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
13	BUI Ryan	1%	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%
14	KENDLER Micah	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
15	BOUDREAUX James	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
16	KIM David	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	4%
17	WANG Aiden	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	10%
18	GAVASHELI Margarita	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
19	EVANS George	-	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%
20	KIRKELL Mia	3%	39%	39%	15%	3%	-	-
21	HANSEN Henry	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
22	MAHMUD Subaita	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	3%
23	CHAMBERS Ryan	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
24	CAO Carolyn	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%	-
25	LEE Anton	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
26	TOSH Audrey	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
27	OZBAY Alp	1%	15%	40%	32%	11%	1%	-
28	MARSHALL Andrew	43%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
29	RYAN Siobhan	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
30	MARSHALL Colin	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
31	GARG Suhani	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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