2022 Foothills Fall Fight

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Simpsonville Activity Center - Simpsonville, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLICK Aiden	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
2	AMOROSO John	-	-	-	7%	38%	54%
3	LAUSI Patrick	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
3	BLAND Ian	-	-	2%	12%	39%	46%
5	MODULLA Yathin	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
6	CAMPBELL Joseph	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
7	BIRT David (Dave) L.	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
8	RACHEL Dylan	2%	19%	40%	29%	9%	1%
9	KELLY Michael G.	-	-	2%	21%	56%	21%
10	BUI Henry	8%	33%	38%	18%	3%	-
11	SAKO Ayrton (A.J.)	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
12	TIKHONOV Ilia	-	-	14%	44%	37%	5%
13	LE Kevin	2%	11%	29%	34%	20%	4%	-
14	ARNOLD Benjamin	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	7%
15	SNYDER Ari	-	2%	18%	43%	31%	5%
16	LIU Dylan	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	25%	2%
17	HUESKE David	1%	13%	40%	35%	10%	1%
18	COLLIER Baiden C.	-	14%	44%	33%	8%	-
19	SHELLABARGER Stephen	4%	23%	42%	27%	4%	-
20	RICKMAN Ian	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%
21	KRIEGER Jack	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
22	NELSON Cole	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
23	CUNNINGHAM Rowan	2%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
24	WILKENS Patricia A.	61%	35%	4%	-	-	-
25	PAYNE John T.	-	6%	23%	39%	27%	5%
26	GEISSLER Maximilian	15%	44%	33%	8%	-	-
27	MCKINLEY Manley J.	2%	20%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	GUTHRIE Jennifer	13%	44%	33%	9%	1%	-
28	CATES Georgia	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
30	MILES Greyson Miles	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
30	FERRARO Nicholas	40%	44%	14%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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