Star Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Fore Kicks Sports Complex - Taunton, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XU Andy P.	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
2	SHEN Mingxuan	-	-	1%	8%	32%	42%	17%
3	CHENG Ethan	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
3	SHAO Eric	-	-	1%	12%	39%	48%
5	XU Ethan	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
6	KAPOOR Aayan	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
7	CHEN Ethan	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%
8	WANG Brian	-	4%	20%	39%	31%	7%
9	ZHAO Adam	-	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	22%
10	TAN Aidan	-	1%	5%	24%	46%	24%
11	WANG Rory	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	5%
12	LEE JISUNG	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
13	LIU ERIC	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
14	YOON Aiden	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
15	LI Bradley	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
16	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	-	-	4%	26%	49%	21%
17	ZHANG Lucas	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	4%
18	CHO Xzander	-	5%	25%	42%	24%	4%
19	VO Aidan	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
20	BAI Brian	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-
21	FENG Michael	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	3%	-
22	SURESH Rohan	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
23	HWANG Harris	-	3%	20%	45%	27%	5%
24	GE Daniel	8%	41%	38%	12%	1%	-
25	YANG Dylan	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
26	LAO Kevin	1%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
27	WANG Luke	6%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-
28	STAFFORD Gareth	31%	46%	21%	3%	-	-
29	XU Nathan	3%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%
30	HOU Gaven	-	3%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
31	WONG Jacob W.	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
32	ZHAO Brian	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
33	SONG Yuxuan Austin	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
34	LEE SIYUN	16%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
35	LIU Stanley	2%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
36	CHENG Austyn	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
37	WU Isaac	8%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-	-
38	BO Aiden	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
39	LI Kevin	8%	33%	38%	18%	3%	-	-
40	TAM Kyle	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
41	WANG Ralph	18%	44%	31%	6%	-	-
42	WANG ZEYU	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%	-
42	LIN Dexter	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
44	HU Daniel	65%	30%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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