Houston Fall RYC and RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Alliance Fencing Academy - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG Victoria R.	-	1%	13%	38%	38%	10%
2	LEE Michelle J.	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
3	TOLSMA Chloe (CJ)	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%	1%
3	PADHYE Tanishka	-	3%	15%	35%	36%	11%
5	KHAMIS Yasmine A.	-	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
6	SEBASTIAN Felicity A.	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
7	POTAPENKO Margarita D.	-	3%	18%	42%	31%	6%
8	MEHROTRA Anya	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
9	CALDERA Lexi I.	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	12%
10	MCCUTCHEN Lauren (Lulu)	-	-	4%	25%	49%	21%
11	KORKIN Alice	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
12	KOZLOWSKI Maya M.	-	4%	24%	46%	23%	3%
13	CHERNIS Zoe C.	-	2%	16%	40%	33%	8%
13	GADDE Neha	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
13	ALI Alina	43%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
16	SENYUVA Su	2%	18%	42%	30%	8%	1%
17	LIU Christina A.	-	-	1%	11%	43%	45%
18	GEVA Eliana	12%	46%	33%	8%	1%	-
19	BARG Daniella	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-
20	WALLER DEL VALLE Andrea	8%	36%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
21	GAUR Ishi	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
22	NAKA Emily	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
23	SUN Renee R.	3%	16%	35%	33%	13%	2%
24	BARG Margaret	13%	45%	33%	8%	1%	-
24	KUDRYAVTSEVA Margarita	3%	24%	46%	23%	4%	-
26	MARTIN Adriana	21%	50%	25%	4%	-	-
27	YAO KATHARINE	2%	21%	44%	27%	6%	-
28	SANTA MARIA Luisa F.	-	1%	11%	30%	38%	18%	1%
29	WALLER DEL VALLE Alexandra	58%	35%	6%	-	-	-
30	FRANCIS Elena	55%	37%	7%	1%	-	-
31	YOU Joyce	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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