The 9-State Fencing Cup RYC/RCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Chelsea Piers Connecticut and Tim Morehouse Fencing Club - CT - Stamford, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG Alina C.	-	-	-	-	1%	14%	86%
2	MI Aileen	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	YANG Iris	-	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
3	FENG Grace	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	25%	2%
5	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
6	SHEN Emilia	-	-	4%	24%	43%	24%	4%
7	SHENG Chuxi	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	14%
8	WANG Zoie Z.	-	-	2%	18%	42%	31%	7%
9	LEE Lavender	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
10	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	-	5%	24%	46%	25%
11	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	2%	14%	37%	34%	12%	1%
12	YANG Lingting	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	3%
13	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	-	-	3%	21%	46%	29%
14	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	5%
15	CHEN Renee	-	-	1%	6%	29%	50%	14%
16	LIN Victoria T.	-	7%	30%	41%	19%	3%	-
17	YANG Emma	-	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%	1%
18	ZHANG Selena	-	2%	16%	42%	31%	8%	1%
19	FIELD Julianna	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%	1%
20	NEUMAN Sophie	2%	13%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
21	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
22	ROY Layla	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
23	PAULUS Isabella	-	4%	22%	42%	27%	5%	-
24	LEVY Avery	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%	-
25	PAULUS Sloane	-	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
26	MARTIRE Alessandra	21%	45%	27%	6%	1%	-
27	LENZ Zoe N.	1%	30%	42%	21%	5%	-	-
28	LI Eleanor	1%	11%	38%	36%	13%	1%	-
29	CHEN Sophie	14%	54%	28%	4%	-	-	-
30	CHAKRAPANI Ila	14%	48%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
31	BERGEL Daphne	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
32	HWANG Chanel	34%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
33	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	1%	17%	47%	28%	6%	-	-
34	WANG Reese	10%	45%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
35	LI Xiang (Shining)	71%	27%	2%	-	-	-	-
36	BURUMA JOSEPHINE	4%	25%	47%	22%	3%	-	-
37	LIAW Elaine	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%	-
38	YU Jane	35%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
39	SHI Sasha	58%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-
40	LIU Long	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-
41	NICUDEMUS Bryella	69%	29%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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