The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Back to School RYC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 11:00 AM

Santa Clara, CA - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KER Grace	100%	100%	100%	99%	91%	54%
2	KRASTEV Minna	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	36%
3	TSE Angelina	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	56%
3	GHAYALOD Reya	100%	100%	100%	98%	85%	45%
5	RAMOS Katrione Dominae	100%	95%	68%	23%	3%	-
6	LIN Lauren	100%	99%	89%	56%	19%	2%
7	LIU Sydney	100%	100%	98%	84%	48%	9%
7	JUNG Irene	100%	99%	86%	50%	15%	2%
9	BUCKHOUSE Talia	100%	94%	60%	12%	-	-
10	CAPLICE Ella	100%	76%	29%	4%	-	-
11	SNOAD Indy	100%	99%	84%	47%	13%	1%
12	KATILA-MIIKKULAINEN Alli	100%	99%	90%	59%	21%	2%
13	XA-CHIN Sara	100%	95%	72%	33%	8%	1%
14	SOEHARTONO Jessica	100%	100%	95%	64%	6%	-
15	WAN Sing	100%	94%	66%	26%	5%	-
16	WANG Kallie	100%	61%	14%	1%	-	-
17	ZHANG Evelyn	100%	58%	14%	2%	-	-
18	STONE Coral	100%	66%	23%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.