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Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, September 1, 2019 at 1:00 PM

Santa Clara, CA - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LI Phoebe J.	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
2	CASTANEDA Erika L.	-	-	-	4%	34%	62%
3	CAO Arianna L.	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	KOROL Neta	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
5	FERNANDES Thea	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
6	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	7%	37%	56%
7	KIM Katherine	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
8	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	-	4%	21%	42%	30%	3%
9	YHIP Mikaela M.	-	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
10	TALWALKAR Apoorva	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
10	KOROL Dana	-	2%	19%	48%	28%	4%
12	SHIH Diane	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	19%
13	PANT Anisha	-	-	5%	26%	52%	16%
14	SUN Chien-Yu	-	6%	26%	42%	23%	2%
15	LEE Bethanie	-	-	6%	32%	47%	14%
16	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
17	CUI Melody J.	-	4%	35%	44%	16%	1%
18	PENG Amber L.	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
19	SUN Ruoxi	-	-	10%	37%	43%	9%
20	TOM Caitlyn	-	3%	30%	46%	19%	2%
21	LUO Sandra J.	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
22	HSIUNG Samantha	13%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
23	WANG Zoie Z.	-	3%	17%	38%	32%	9%
24	KOSLOW Amicie	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	3%
25	HO Rachel E.	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
26	WELBORN Calissa	4%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
27	UMAP Arna	1%	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%
28	HOBSON Ava	14%	37%	35%	13%	1%	-
29	WANG Celine S.	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
30	GONG Chloe	7%	29%	39%	21%	3%	-
31	OHALLORAN Zoe	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
32	RAO Sonia D.	9%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
33	ZHANG Eunice	1%	10%	31%	38%	18%	3%
34	BOLES Amanda X.	6%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
35	NAIR Supriya	6%	29%	41%	20%	3%	-
36	FUNG Emma	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
37	MANN Sophia J.	3%	34%	47%	15%	2%	-
38	LUH Mia P.	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
39	GREEN Perri L.	29%	43%	22%	5%	1%	-
40	ENRILE Erica	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-
41	TSANG Catherine	3%	37%	44%	14%	1%	-
42	NAGPAL Reyna	79%	20%	1%	-	-	-
43	CHIRASHNYA Mika	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
44	PATTERSON Natalia	19%	45%	28%	7%	1%	-
45	NICKOLOV Nora	13%	67%	18%	2%	-	-
46	XU Audrey J.	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
47	SALAMATI Soraya A.	20%	55%	22%	3%	-	-
48	ZHENG Zoe	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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