Back to School RYC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1:00 PM

City Beach Volleyball, Fremont - Fremont, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HO Addison	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
2	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
3	REN Kayley	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	DENG Melissa	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
5	ZHANG Ivy	-	1%	8%	25%	38%	23%	4%
6	TAO Ann	-	1%	8%	29%	45%	16%	2%
7	POEI Lauren	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	8%	1%
8	ZOU Ella	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
9	LUO Miranda	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
10	KIM Sydney	-	2%	11%	26%	34%	21%	5%
11	HAN Gian	-	-	3%	14%	31%	35%	16%
12	LI Joy	1%	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	1%
13	YU Sophie	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	1%	-
14	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	10%
15	BENNYHOFF Naia	10%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
16	LIU Ariana	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
17	DENG Claire	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
18	CHANG Lydia	-	2%	13%	31%	36%	17%	2%
19	CHAN Mila	-	3%	13%	28%	33%	19%	4%
20	TAN Shouyin	-	-	4%	17%	37%	34%	8%
21	TAI Taphanie	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
22	FUNG Sarafina	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
23	AULT Aryanna	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	3%
24	HUGHES Olivia	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
25	THERON Zoe	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
26	MA Isabelle	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
27	TULYAG Sayda	5%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%	-
28	CHOI Sophie	11%	31%	33%	18%	5%	1%	-
29	ZHOU Joi	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
30	CHO Karis	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
31	LIM Kensie	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
32	LEE Zoe	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
33	SAH Madeleine	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
34	KERNEY Ada	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
35	UHLIG Natalie	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
36	HOM Avery	7%	31%	40%	19%	4%	-	-
37	LI Alice	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	-
38	LUCAS Ava	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
39	LIU Angelina	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
40	LEE Abigail	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	24%	2%
41	BENNYHOFF Myla	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
42	CHEN Madeleine	7%	25%	34%	24%	9%	1%	-
43	THANT Alexis	-	6%	28%	44%	19%	3%	-
44	CHEN Elysia	-	13%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
45	TAI Penelope	5%	22%	34%	27%	10%	2%	-
46	HOM Emma	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
47	HSIAO Ariya	2%	23%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
48	YUEN Kaitlyn	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
49	LIM Kora	30%	42%	22%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.