Athens Fencing Open 2022

Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Georgia Square Mall - Athens, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Boyan	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	18%
2	ZHOU Alec	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
3	LABROZZI Aidan	-	-	3%	19%	46%	32%
3	TIKHONOV Ilia	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
5	MESA Brian	-	1%	6%	27%	41%	23%	2%
6	PELLICIER Adriana	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
7	DOERSAM Max	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	22%
8	WANG Aidan	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	21%	4%
9	MARSHALL Wesley	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
10	RACHEL Dylan	-	6%	40%	41%	11%	1%
11	YANAMANDRA Sidhansh	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
12	SOTTILE Cole	-	2%	16%	50%	27%	5%	-
13	LIU Dylan	-	1%	12%	37%	40%	9%
14	LE Kevin	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%
15	WEBSTER Davis	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
16	TUCKER Evan	8%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
17	HERRERA Emmanuel	1%	15%	37%	33%	12%	1%
18	MCDANIEL Eamon	29%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
19	MCARTHUR Kemp	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
20	NICKERSON Edward	5%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%
21	JACKSON Viktoria	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
22	WYBLE Sierra	16%	46%	32%	5%	-	-
23	MOSS Riley	29%	49%	19%	3%	-	-	-
24	FRAIJ Laila	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
25	HWANG Sungwon	1%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
26	WENTWORTH Ashley	23%	44%	27%	6%	-	-	-
27	JONES Austin	1%	13%	38%	36%	11%	1%
28	STONE Nicholas	8%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-
28	JARMAN Robert	6%	31%	39%	20%	4%	-
30	BERNSTEIN Leo	3%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
31	ZHOU Samantha	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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