The 30th Annual Crescent City Open

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Riverside Hilton / Fitness By Hilton (The Tennis Courts) - New Orleans, LA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Zeph	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
2	RAY William	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
3	COCHRAN Michael	-	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
3	GASTON Ryan	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
5	DAVIS Richard M.	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
6	SEBASTIAN Alexander P.	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	3%
7	WEBSTER Davis G.	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%
8	TIEMANN Landen	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
9	KRAFFT Douglas	-	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
10	O'CONNOR Ryan (Ryan O'Connor) D.	-	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
11	VILLAREAL Quentin	-	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
12	GREGORY Dean	-	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	29%
13	PHILLIPS Wesley Y.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
14	PATIN Nicholas	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
15	DAVIS Campbell	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%	1%
16	MAI Ryan	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
17	LINER Sawyer	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%
18	SOTTILE Cole	13%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-	-
19	PARISI Nolan W.	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
20	SCHWARY Irv	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
21	MAI Hung	1%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
22	NICKERSON Edward	16%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
23	HENSON Hunter	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
24	ALQUADDOOMI Khaled S.	3%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%	-
25	YAWN Joshua	51%	40%	9%	1%	-	-	-
26	TRETYAKOV Igor	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-	-
27	CRISTINA Jack	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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