Escrime d'Halloween RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 8:30 AM

The Edge Sports and Arts Academy - Twinsburg, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Ethan	-	-	-	5%	25%	44%	25%
2	ORONOWICZ Jakub	-	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	21%
3	TSAO Lukas	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	KENNEDY christo	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
5	ALLEN Henry G.	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
6	GUTH Joseph	-	-	4%	19%	41%	29%	7%
7	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
8	SLUSHER Gideon	-	5%	24%	41%	24%	6%	-
9	MCISAAC Finn	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	21%
10	STRINGER David	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	21%
11	FU Steven	2%	12%	34%	37%	13%	2%
12	BIESIADA Jan	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-
13	EDWARDS Maxon	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
13	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
15	HAN Derek	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
16	DUNLAP Ian	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
17	MASSIMINO Andrew	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
18	LI Joseph	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
19	MAVANI Krishna	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%	1%
20	NAZARIO Dominic	6%	30%	43%	18%	3%	-
21	TOWNE Benjamin	6%	28%	41%	21%	4%	-	-
22	RAJU Dharshan	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
23	ROOT-THOMPSON Kiah O.	3%	24%	41%	26%	5%	-
24	LINDOW Connor	2%	19%	42%	28%	7%	1%
25	POWELL Sean	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
25	WINGLER Cole	9%	47%	34%	9%	1%	-
27	GOODLIN Sean	15%	42%	33%	9%	1%	-	-
28	MODADUGU Aryan	15%	43%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	WANG DAVID	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
30	MICK Gabriel	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
31	SUN Henry	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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