SYC of the Rockies

Y-14 Women's Foil

Friday, October 14, 2022 at 2:00 PM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	-	-	2%	11%	39%	49%
2	JOO Natalie	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
3	DAVIS Logan	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	HAFEZ Tahiyah	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	20%
5	BEAVER Ava	-	1%	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
6	DUAN Sophie	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
7	DENG Melissa	-	-	3%	16%	36%	35%	10%
8	HO Addison	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
9	WANG CAROL	-	-	2%	14%	39%	36%	8%
10	ZOU Ella	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
11	HAN Gian	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
12	REN Kayley	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
13	BROWN Lola	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
14	CARVAJAL Sofia	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
15	ZHANG Ivy	-	-	5%	21%	41%	28%	5%
16	WANG DINA C.	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
17	WYNN Kylie	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
18	CHERNYKH Elina	-	2%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
19	HARRIS Julia	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
20	LEVESQUE Brielle	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
21	COX Sophia	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
22	PIQUETTE Annika	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
23	KRYLTSOVA Eva	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
24	DESAI Esha	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
25	WANG Emma	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
26	WANG Joanna	4%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
27	WU Chingfei Amber	33%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
28	ALLEYNE Taylar	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%
29	CHANG Janelle	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
30	ZHANG Gwenyth	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
31	CHOI Sophie	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
32	KIM Sydney	10%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
33	HUGHES Olivia	18%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
34	FUNG Sarafina	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
35	LUCAS Ava	19%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
36	DESERANNO Seren	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
37	HOM Avery	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-	-
38	POEI Lauren	17%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
39	REAVILLE Susanna	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
40	LEACH Skye	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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