SYC of the Rockies

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 2:30 PM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BEAVER Ava	-	-	3%	15%	42%	40%
2	WANG Joanna	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	10%
3	BROWN Lola	-	-	-	3%	18%	46%	33%
3	ZOU Ella	-	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
5	DAVIS Logan	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
6	CHERNYKH Elina	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	4%
7	WANG CAROL	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	11%
8	ZHANG Ivy	-	2%	16%	41%	34%	7%
9	REN Kayley	-	-	-	1%	12%	40%	47%
10	DENG Melissa	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
11	HO Addison	-	-	1%	9%	38%	53%
12	JOO Natalie	-	-	-	4%	40%	55%
13	HARRIS Julia	-	-	2%	11%	34%	42%	11%
14	HAN Gian	-	-	5%	22%	43%	29%
15	DUAN Sophie	-	-	1%	12%	57%	31%
16	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	-	4%	18%	38%	32%	7%
17	DESERANNO Seren	-	2%	13%	36%	39%	11%
18	POEI Lauren	1%	8%	25%	37%	23%	5%	-
19	ALLEYNE Taylar	-	2%	17%	41%	33%	6%
20	KIM Sydney	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
21	KRYLTSOVA Eva	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%
22	ZHANG Gwenyth	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
23	WANG Emma	1%	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
24	CHOI Sophie	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
25	WANG DINA C.	1%	5%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
26	DENG Claire	3%	20%	43%	27%	6%	-
27	CASHMAN Hailey	-	3%	15%	36%	34%	11%	1%
28	CHANG Lydia	-	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
29	LIM Kensie	3%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
30	HUGHES Olivia	28%	48%	21%	3%	-	-
31	HAFEZ Sahar	2%	18%	40%	30%	8%	1%
32	PARK Lauren	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
33	LI Alice	2%	18%	43%	32%	4%	-
34	WU Chingfei Amber	9%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
35	ZEE Savannah	3%	20%	44%	29%	3%	-
36	CHANG Olivia	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
37	RUI Jessie	3%	24%	40%	25%	7%	1%
38	NAYGAS Alexandra	12%	42%	34%	11%	1%	-
39	HOM Avery	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
40	FUNG Sarafina	6%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
41	AULT Aryanna	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
42	ZHOU Joi	16%	44%	32%	8%	-	-
43	CHU Felicity	10%	36%	36%	14%	3%	-	-
44	TELEB Farida	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
45	LIM Kora	49%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
46	WANG Doreen	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
47	SOE Hayleigh	32%	46%	19%	3%	-	-
48	LUCAS Ava	17%	38%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
49	LI Joy	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
49	HOM Emma	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
51	CHEN Elysia	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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