Garden State Trick or Re-Treat RYC/RJC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:30 AM

Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	-	3%	15%	39%	43%
2	HARRIS Julia	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	9%
3	JOO Natalie	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	WANG Amabel	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
5	LI Han (Helina)	-	-	2%	11%	29%	39%	19%
6	ORRINGER Lottie	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	32%	8%
7	WANG Joanna	3%	19%	40%	29%	8%	1%
8	MCFARLANE Asha	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
9	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
10	LIN Yunong	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	2%
11	CASCONE Sophie	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	33%	11%
12	LIU Caydence	1%	5%	20%	33%	29%	11%	1%
13	ZHANG Zoey	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
14	BULAVA Tatyana	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
15	LI Savannah	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
16	HUSSIAN Annabelle	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
17	CAVANAGH Emma	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
18	REZA Fukaina	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
19	FEDER Acadia	4%	18%	34%	29%	13%	3%	-
20	HUSSAIN Maya	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
21	EYER Brooke	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	1%
22	RAFFAELE Nancy	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
23	ALLEN Sophia	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
24	WAN Celine	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
25	WANG Selina	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
25	BEKIYANTS Elizabeth	3%	20%	36%	29%	10%	2%	-
27	POTAVIN Corinna	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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