Garden State Trick or Re-Treat RYC/RJC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RIZKALA Joanna	-	-	1%	11%	41%	46%
2	LIU Yifei	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
3	MAKLIN Sofia	-	1%	8%	31%	45%	16%
3	MUND Ruth	-	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	17%
5	ZHANG Sophie	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
6	SINHA Anika	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
7	FESTA Carina	-	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
8	YEN Natalie	5%	21%	34%	28%	11%	2%
9	FEIG Sela	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
10	KANDADAI Lara	7%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
11	DANK Dina	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
12	ZHENG Valentina	3%	14%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
13	HENRY Soraya S.	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
14	ZHENG Sophia	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-
15	ATTIA Jasmine	-	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
16	LEUNG Ashlyn K.	-	14%	42%	34%	9%	1%
17	SOURIMTO Valeria	-	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	29%
18	DAI Olivia	1%	5%	18%	33%	29%	12%	2%
19	BAWA Anahat	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
20	NGUYEN Ella	-	3%	12%	27%	34%	20%	4%
21	LAGOON Miriam	7%	25%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
22	YOUNG Audrey	5%	21%	34%	28%	11%	2%
23	KHAN Alissa	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
24	SCHAIBLE Sofia L.	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
25	REN Xinling	-	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
26	GONTARSKI Rachel	14%	43%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
27	NAYAK Esha	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
28	NAYAK Anika	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%
29	ZHANG Emily	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
30	LOO Kaitlyn	1%	10%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
31	LOPEZ-ONA Mia	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
32	MCSWEENEY Kylie	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
33	LI Alexis	2%	40%	41%	14%	2%	-
34	SHUM Cindy	1%	13%	33%	33%	16%	3%	-
35	FLATT Sophia	-	7%	31%	42%	18%	2%
36	SHINCHUK Ellisha	-	4%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
37	MERCHANT Aishwarya	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
38	MANKOVA Varvara	2%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-
39	CRAINE Alexandra E.	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
40	ZENG Sarah	2%	10%	27%	34%	21%	5%
41	SHELLEY Scarlett	4%	20%	36%	29%	11%	1%
42	HAMBAZAZA Liisa	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	5%
43	XU Demi	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
44	CONNOLLY Vida	2%	19%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
44	NAYAK Antara	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-
46	MORGAN Lily	89%	10%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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