The Ohio State University Open

Senior Men's Saber

Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 3:00 PM

French Field House - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SWARTZ Roscoe O.	-	-	-	1%	20%	78%
2	MAROUF Eyad	-	-	-	5%	34%	61%
3	PRICE Jack S.	-	-	1%	15%	61%	23%
3	RAI Avin	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
5	RIGHTLER Samuel	-	1%	11%	36%	41%	11%
6	WILLIAMS Nolan E.	-	-	-	-	5%	36%	59%
7	BUERGENTHAL Aaron P.	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
8	ALOJIPAN Jaydon	2%	17%	41%	33%	6%	-
9	HANEY Vincent	-	1%	10%	46%	40%	4%
10	AL-NASSER Mahmoud	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
11	LIU Kelly	-	-	-	2%	13%	45%	40%
12	DRESSELL Wiley	-	-	-	4%	26%	52%	18%
13	RICHER Tyler	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	2%	-
14	LAI Yat Hay Casper	-	-	-	5%	23%	47%	25%
15	SCHARDINE Ryan	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	17%	1%
16	CHOU Stephen C.	-	-	1%	13%	66%	20%
17	LIU Yizhe	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%	-
18	BAUER Hank E.	-	6%	34%	52%	7%	-
19	DAUM Alan	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
20	FISIC Vasilije	-	1%	11%	45%	39%	4%
21	SCHARDINE James	1%	10%	29%	38%	19%	2%
22	AKS Ari	3%	18%	36%	32%	10%	1%
23	XIONG Zerui	3%	23%	50%	23%	2%	-
24	GERSTMANN Max T.	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-	-
25	SIDDIQUI Shayan	5%	24%	38%	25%	6%	-
26	NGUYENBA Thaison	20%	44%	29%	6%	-	-
27	BARNES William	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
28	WALTERS Elijah	14%	46%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	LI Feiting	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
30	BATTISFORE Hunter	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
31	STANISLAV Charles	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
32	AHMED Neehal	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
33	CHEN Curtis	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%	-	-
34	IDRIS Haashir	38%	47%	15%	1%	-	-
35	GRAY-JONES Jimmy	3%	29%	43%	21%	3%	-
36	HANEY Zachary	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
37	PHAM Minh Phuc	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-	-
38	BLOOM Jacob	29%	49%	19%	3%	-	-	-
39	PHILLIPSON Jack	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
40	BAILEY Conner	9%	36%	42%	12%	1%	-
41	JI Eric	3%	23%	42%	26%	5%	-	-
42	DUDZIK Garrett	12%	57%	26%	4%	-	-
43	HUGHES Nathan	1%	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
44	CHEN Benson	12%	44%	40%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.