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Boston Fencing Club ROC

Div II Women's Épée

Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SONG Angela	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
2	ABRAMSON Mariela R.	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
3	SMUK Alexandra S.	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
3	AZMEH nour	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
5	ZHENG Linden	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
5	SOTELO Michelle	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%
7	PRIHODKO Nina	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
8	SHU Youshan	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
9	SINHA Zara	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
10	ETZEL Rowan	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
11	ROWLAND May	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
12	SANLIKOL Suzan	2%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%
13	RICHARDSON Meredith	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
14	MONOVA Lilyana	-	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
15	SAAL Anna	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
16	BENNETT Olivia	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
17	CAFASSO Natalya	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
18	REYNOLDS Nancy	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
19	ERSHOVA Anastasia	-	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
20	BYK Laura	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
21	MASTRONARDI Laura	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
22	WONG Alexandra R.	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
23	LI Fei	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
24	JENSEN MJ	12%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
25	CHACE-ORTIZ Naneen	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
26	PAN Angela	7%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
27	WEINSIER Ryan	-	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
28	FINNEGAN Ellen M.	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
29	BENZAN India	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
30	YOUNG Emma N.	8%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-
31	CONNOLLY Natasha	26%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-
32	HOPKINS Leila	-	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
33	CHOY Ida	-	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
34	LEE Hwaeun	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
35	MESSINA Sophia	8%	34%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
36	HUANG Ziyan	6%	36%	38%	16%	3%	-	-
37	FENG Iris	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
38	CAFASSO Sabrina	2%	14%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
39	HOOPER Lucy	2%	20%	39%	30%	9%	1%
40	ZOU You Yang	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
41	MURDOCH ROY Grace	6%	26%	39%	23%	6%	-
42	BYRON Karen J.	-	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%	1%
43	SHEAHAN Emma	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-	-
44	CHENG Shu Yi	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
45	BECK Sara	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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