BladeRunner ROC/RJC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 1:30 PM

Liontree Arena (RIMAC) @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Katherine	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	LOCKE Savannah	-	-	1%	12%	43%	43%
3	LIU Joy Zhaoyi	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
5	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	8%
6	SUN Chien-Yu	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
7	FUNG Emma	-	5%	24%	44%	24%	4%
8	KOROL Neta	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
9	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	1%	5%	22%	41%	28%	3%
10	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
11	DUAN Konnie	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	15%
12	TALWALKAR Apoorva	-	-	2%	14%	39%	39%	6%
13	CHEW Alexis T.	-	1%	6%	29%	46%	18%
14	FUNG Vera	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
15	CHEN Chloe I.	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
16	CHOI Kailyn	13%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
17	FERNANDES Thea	-	1%	13%	38%	38%	9%
18	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
19	BOLES Amanda X.	6%	30%	42%	19%	3%	-
20	DO Leila	1%	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%
21	SUN Emily	-	3%	19%	40%	30%	7%	-
22	SUN Ruoxi	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
23	LEE Ji Ahn	-	3%	19%	43%	30%	5%
24	LEE Allison	-	4%	24%	41%	26%	5%
25	SHUM Maya	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
26	SHUM Elizabeth	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
27	GUAN Sophie	-	1%	9%	32%	40%	16%	1%
28	MORADI Raiyan N.	-	1%	9%	28%	39%	20%	2%
29	LIPKOVITZ Rivka	-	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%
30	KO Claire	2%	18%	43%	29%	7%	-
31	ZHENG Zoe	12%	36%	35%	14%	3%	-	-
32	CHANG Elizabeth	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
33	MUÑOZ Isabella	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%	-
34	GORDOA Sofia	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
35	KOROL Dana	-	3%	18%	40%	32%	7%
36	GUAN Sydney	3%	40%	40%	14%	2%	-
37	JANEW Anastasia	46%	42%	11%	1%	-	-
38	CAMPOS Camila	4%	35%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
39	HOBSON Ava	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
40	YANICELLI Sloane	3%	33%	42%	19%	3%	-
41	WANG Brina	17%	43%	32%	8%	1%	-
42	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
43	QUINN Anna	2%	22%	46%	25%	5%	-	-
44	CABALU Alaina	20%	48%	26%	5%	-	-
44	MCKAY Teresa	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-
46	WANG Celine S.	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
46	LIU Jessica	89%	10%	-	-	-	-
48	MORALES Paulina	37%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
49	PATTERSON Natalia	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%	-
50	STAPLETON Teagan	79%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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