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Western Washington Foil & Epee Challenge Series #1

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 10:00 AM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUERRA Gabriel H.	-	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
2	SHAGIDANYAN German	-	2%	24%	42%	26%	6%
3	CHUNG Yeongbin	-	1%	9%	36%	45%	9%
3	LIPPMAN Sam	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
5	PORRAS Cristian	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
6	KRYLTSOV Michael	-	-	9%	33%	41%	16%
7	KIM Jackson	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
8	TALASILA Arush	1%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
9	GUTIERREZ Nikolai A.	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
10	MIN Eric	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
11	KIM Andrew J.	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
12	YU Jason	-	1%	19%	43%	30%	7%
13	TANG Julian	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
14	STACKHOUSE Andre L.	-	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%
15	GU Maggie	-	13%	36%	36%	14%	1%
16	LISONDRA Niko	-	1%	10%	34%	41%	14%
17	LEE Christopher T.	-	-	3%	16%	40%	35%	6%
18	WU Alistair	-	5%	27%	40%	23%	4%
19	KIM Harrison	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
20	HAN Crystal	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
21	LI Samuel	-	-	5%	25%	47%	23%
22	LIU Aaron Zixian	-	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
23	VALENTINE Iain	-	-	5%	26%	42%	23%	3%
24	ROZALSKI Eli	3%	39%	42%	14%	2%	-
25	LEE Jayden	10%	36%	39%	14%	2%	-
26	ROSSMAN Brock	1%	23%	45%	25%	5%	-
27	VALENTINE Eoin	15%	41%	34%	9%	1%	-
28	SUN Ning Lu (Sophia)	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
29	NAIR Supriya	3%	23%	40%	27%	7%	1%	-
30	YAN Noelle	4%	21%	37%	28%	10%	2%	-
31	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	1%
32	BEAVER Hannah	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-
33	KIM Chloe	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
34	TROXEL Sylvie A.	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
35	HAN Ashley	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
36	COSGROVE Jameson	4%	28%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
36	LIU Grace	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-
38	HARROCH Faustin	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-	-
39	WU Jingxiao (James)	26%	61%	12%	1%	-	-
40	FORD Nikanor	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-	-
41	BIROAN Chaz	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
42	SOHN Aiden	84%	15%	1%	-	-	-
43	LIU Emily	9%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%	-
44	SIA Vincent	30%	50%	19%	1%	-	-
45	SIA Lovie	33%	49%	17%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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