Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HAFEEZ Hania	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
2	SONG Angela	-	-	5%	23%	45%	27%
3	SMUK Alexandra S.	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
3	LEE Scarlett	-	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
5	AZMEH nour	-	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
6	ZHU Serene M.	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
7	LIN Elaine	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
8	FENG Ge	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
9	LI Zhenni (Jenny)	-	1%	12%	35%	40%	12%
10	FURMAN Maria	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
11	CAFASSO Natalya	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
12	CHISHOLM Phoebe C.	-	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
13	BENZAN India	-	-	4%	23%	39%	27%	6%
14	REKEDA Anna	3%	21%	43%	27%	6%	-
15	MONOVA Lilyana	3%	19%	41%	30%	8%	1%
16	FAN Elizabeth	-	5%	21%	38%	27%	8%	1%
17	PROFIS Liora	-	2%	14%	39%	37%	9%
18	LI Fei	-	3%	17%	40%	32%	7%
19	RICHARDSON Meredith	-	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
20	HOAGLAND Sally	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
21	KRUMHOLZ Nicole	-	-	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%
22	PRIHODKO Nina	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	21%	4%
23	DEPOMMIER Isabelle	-	2%	15%	37%	32%	12%	1%
24	CHANG Chloe	7%	35%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
25	SANLIKOL Suzan	10%	43%	36%	10%	1%	-
26	YOU Isabel B.	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
27	KOMAROW Anastasia	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
28	SHANKERDAS Shreeya	18%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
29	LEE Hwaeun	9%	42%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
30	TIBBETTS Lily	79%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-
31	HUANG Ziyan	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-
32	WILLIAMSON Beatrix	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
33	FENG Iris	8%	31%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
34	GAVILANES Madyson	43%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
35	HOOPER Lucy	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
36	KENNON Katherine	1%	15%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
37	SAZONOVA Alexandra	4%	44%	38%	12%	2%	-	-
38	COVINO Mila	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
39	SHEAHAN Emma	57%	36%	7%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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