The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

DCFC Youth Epee Challenge

Y-12 Mixed Épée

Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 12:00 PM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	AHN Ezra	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
2	YOU Brandon	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%	2%
3	WANG Marcus	-	-	9%	41%	43%	7%
3	PENG Yue	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
5	DOAN Christopher	1%	6%	20%	36%	29%	9%
6	CAO Carolyn	11%	31%	35%	18%	5%	-
7	WORMACK Anthony Jr.	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	2%
8	WILKERSON Tobias	13%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
9	YOU Jungwon	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%	-
10	REICHEL Norah	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
11	POLAGANI Krishiv	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%	-
12	LAM Jayden	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%
13	MILLER Balthazar	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
14	GORDON Hannah	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
15	HUNTER Owen	1%	6%	23%	40%	26%	4%
16	MARGESON Camille	2%	14%	41%	35%	8%	-
17	FLUGGE Ned	-	-	5%	23%	44%	27%
18	GRAYSON Anaya	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
19	NATHAN Ariel	3%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
20	MORET Teagan	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
21	VUPPULURI Emil	16%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-
22	FREDERICK Thane	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%
23	GAUVEY Amelia	2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1%
24	MATTHEWS Austin	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.