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Wayne State-Danosi Open

Senior Mixed Saber

Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 3:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MAROUF Eyad	-	-	-	-	1%	22%	77%
2	PHILPOT Evan "Eden"	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
3	SCHARDINE James	-	-	2%	16%	58%	25%
3	AL-NASSER Mahmoud	-	-	-	-	1%	19%	80%
5	DRESSELL Wiley	-	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
6	FOXWORTH John P.	-	-	-	3%	21%	56%	20%
7	ALOJIPAN Jaydon	-	-	-	6%	37%	48%	9%
8	RIGHTLER Samuel	-	-	-	4%	37%	59%
9	NEVEROVICH Vitaly V.	-	1%	11%	38%	43%	7%	-
9	AKS Ari	-	2%	21%	39%	29%	8%	1%
11	SIDDIQUI Shayan	-	1%	13%	43%	36%	7%	-
12	HERNANDEZ Stanton	-	-	1%	12%	61%	25%	-
13	ZHOU Aeres Z.	-	-	-	3%	32%	62%	3%
14	SCHARDINE Ryan	-	-	1%	13%	43%	42%	1%
15	SCHICK Veronica	3%	15%	30%	31%	16%	4%	-
16	PARKILA Lukas	3%	24%	47%	22%	3%	-	-
17	TAN Ethan	-	3%	25%	58%	13%	1%	-
18	WELLER Noah	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
19	YEE Collin	9%	34%	40%	16%	1%	-
20	BARROWS Hunter	2%	55%	37%	6%	-	-	-
21	KAUFFMAN Alex	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-	-
22	BLOOM Jacob	6%	30%	41%	19%	3%	-	-
23	CHAN Chun	2%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%	-
24	PERRY Gwydion	1%	48%	46%	5%	-	-	-
25	BECKER William	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	16%	-
26	GRUIAN Russell	10%	36%	39%	15%	1%	-
27	HUA Michael	3%	20%	41%	30%	5%	-
28	PHILLIPSON Jack	16%	43%	34%	7%	-	-	-
29	PETTENGILL Riley	29%	46%	21%	3%	-	-	-
30	BYARS Reagen	7%	28%	37%	22%	5%	1%	-
31	MILLER Sophia	40%	47%	12%	1%	-	-	-
32	HIRSCH Lauren	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
33	RAVOOR Sahas	5%	29%	42%	20%	3%	-	-
34	CARTER Andrew	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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