Southern California Division Centennial Tournament

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Pasadena City College - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CANCHEZ Federico	-	5%	29%	50%	15%
2	MEDVIDOVIC Pavle	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
3	JORDON Kaleb W.	-	-	2%	17%	48%	33%
3	EDISON Ansel	-	6%	36%	43%	14%
5	KIM Aiden	-	-	4%	22%	47%	28%
6	TON` Kalista	1%	7%	30%	44%	19%
7	PARK Brandon	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
8	YORK Lucas	3%	28%	42%	22%	4%	-
9	ROBINSON Timothy	-	-	2%	18%	48%	32%
10	PROCOPIO Gregory M.	-	8%	33%	43%	15%	1%
11	BRENNAN Ty	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%
12	COOK Ryan	9%	39%	37%	13%	2%
13	THOMPSON Griffin	-	3%	16%	39%	35%	8%
14	LEE Edward C.	2%	13%	34%	37%	15%
15	SIDDIQI Amman	11%	37%	38%	13%	2%	-
16	MONTGOMERY Georgie	61%	33%	6%	-	-
17	TIFFANY Michael R.	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
18	CHEN Brian	-	1%	12%	37%	41%	9%
19	WHARTON David	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%
20	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	23%	44%	27%	5%	-
21	LABOVITCH David	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
23	KEITH HUDSON	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
24	DALVA Michael	1%	7%	28%	43%	20%	2%
25	ROSE Jacob W.	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
26	CHOY Benedict W.	23%	46%	25%	5%	-
27	FERNANDEZ Benjamin	3%	25%	41%	25%	6%	1%
28	ORNELAS Polo	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
29	GAUTHIER-PARKER Harrison	< 1%	10%	39%	42%	8%
30	BAROLETTE Hayden	3%	16%	35%	33%	13%	1%
33	FLORES Madeleine	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
34	WEN James	1%	11%	35%	40%	11%	1%
35	HOHN dana	27%	46%	23%	4%	-	-
36	CARDENAS Osmar	2%	15%	36%	33%	11%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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