American Challenge RYC/RJC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 4:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MI Aileen	-	-	-	-	-	12%	87%
2	CHEN Renee	-	-	2%	16%	49%	34%
3	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	-	2%	15%	51%	32%
3	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
5	DENG Melissa	-	-	2%	19%	60%	19%
6	FIELD Julianna	-	1%	8%	33%	48%	11%
7	ZHANG Selena	-	-	6%	27%	44%	22%
8	HARRIS Julia	1%	8%	28%	40%	20%	3%
9	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	-	2%	30%	67%
10	LI Eleanor	-	-	1%	10%	37%	48%	4%
11	WANG Amabel	-	1%	7%	27%	41%	21%	3%
12	XIE Lillian	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
13	SHENG Chuxi	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
14	WANG Joanna	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	11%	1%
15	ZHENG Julie	-	-	-	1%	9%	45%	45%
16	LI Katerina	13%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
17	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	8%	31%	39%	19%	4%	< 1%	-
18	MAJID Inaaya	-	1%	11%	34%	41%	13%	-
19	YU Jane	1%	8%	27%	38%	23%	3%	-
20	LEE emily	-	3%	18%	42%	31%	7%
21	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	1%	11%	37%	39%	11%	1%
22	BERGEL Daphne	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	1%
23	MCFARLANE Asha	-	5%	29%	51%	14%	1%
24	ZAMLYNNY Maya	3%	20%	42%	28%	7%	1%
25	CHEN Sophie	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
26	LI Han (Helina)	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%	-
27	LI Xiang (Shining)	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-	-
28	BADLANI Diya	4%	29%	42%	21%	4%	-
29	WANG Jasmine	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
30	SHI Sasha	7%	34%	45%	14%	1%	-
31	TSE Isabel	23%	47%	25%	5%	-	-
32	REZA Fukaina	1%	8%	28%	41%	20%	3%	-
33	CHUNG Chloe	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
34	LI Yixin Catherine	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
35	ZHANG Zoey	15%	47%	32%	6%	-	-
36	BURGESS Logan	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
37	HAND Sadie	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-	-
38	CAVANAGH Emma	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
39	SATISH Prithika	11%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
40	SINGH ARSH	39%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
41	LYON Claire	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
42	LI savannah	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
42	WAN Celine	46%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
44	WANG Selina	21%	42%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
45	ECHKO Ariel	3%	18%	40%	32%	8%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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